USDA slightly cuts oilseed production and consumption in 2021/22 In its December estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) put the oilseed harvest in 2021/22 up 4.1% to around 627 million t (previous year 604 million t). Consumption is expected to increase from 509 to 527 million tons. The final stock is estimated at a slightly higher 114 million t. In mathematical terms, the stocks last for 79 days (previous year 72 days). The decisive correction on the previous month is due to the reduced harvests in the soy sector. Compared to the previous year, the USDA continues to estimate an increase from 366 to 382 million t. The additional quantities are mainly due to the Brazilian record harvest of 138 million t in the first half of 2021 and the US harvest of 120 million t in autumn 2021. Argentina only achieved a below-average result with 46 mln t. For the spring of 2022, Brazil expects a soybean harvest of 144 million t due to the previous cultivation areas.On the import side , China is at the forefront with little change in 100 million t of soybeans or almost 60% of world trade. The reduced Chinese pig population has slowed down the usual import growth of 3 to 5 million tons per year. For several years now, the EU-27 has been importing 15 million tonnes of beans and 17 million tonnes of soybean meal, which have not changed much. When it comes to soybean exports , Brazil remains in first place with an expected future volume of 94 million t. In addition, there are 17 million tonnes of soybean meal. The USA expects an export reduction of beans by 6 million t to 55.8 million t in 2021/22. US soybean meal exports change only slightly to just under 13 million t. The USDA estimates global rapeseed production to be 68.35 mln t in the previous month, which is almost 5 mln t less than in the previous year. The decisive factor is the Canadian rapeseed harvest, which has fallen from 19.5 to 12.5 million t due to the heat. Canadian rapeseed export goes from 10.5 to 5.3 milliont back. In the EU , the rapeseed harvest is estimated at 17.25 million t . Due to the global shortage of rapeseed, the EU import requirement is downgraded to 4.7 million t. Imports of more than 6 million t would be necessary to cover normal consumption. In the case of the other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower seeds (+7 million t) is of regional importance. Production focuses on Russia and Ukraine with a share of almost 60%. The cultivation in the south-east European EU countries reaches a share of 17%. In the meantime, the consumption of sunflower oil in the human diet is number one. Support comes from the relative price worthiness of the higher quality oil. Palm oil: For 2021/22, the USDA is assuming that the estimated 76.5 million t will be able to pick up on the development of previous years. In the years 2019-2020, production fell to 73 million t due to the corona-related reduced availability of harvest workers.The main increase comes from Malaysia with +1.2 million t to 19.7 million t and Indonesia with +1 million t to 44.5 million t. Both countries together are responsible for more than 84% of world production. With 3.1 million t (previous year 2.8 million t) Thailand is also contributing to the increase in supply quantities. The consumption of palm oil increases only slightly. The ending stocks change little. On the Chicago stock exchange , the prices in the soy complex rose again after a short period of weakness. After a brief price decline, the palm oil prices are again at a higher level. The rapeseed prices have risen again above the line of 700 € / t as a result of higher palm oil prices. The weaker euro makes the imports necessary for supply more expensive.
