USDA continues to estimate high soybean harvests and rising world rapeseed harvest The latest estimate by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for global oilseed supply showed persistently high levels of soy despite lower soybean harvests. In addition, the USDA surprised with a worldwide increase in rapeseed crops. Overall, the global oilseeds market is in a higher than average supply stage. The soybean crops are expected to grow in 2019/20 by approx. 7 million tonnes to 355 million tonnes. The USA, whose harvest in 2019 is estimated to have decreased from 123.6 million tonnes to 113 million tonnes in 2019, is the largest contributing factor. The background to this is the US-China trade dispute , which caused the US to forcibly increase its stock of inventories from 8 million t to 27 million t due to a lack of Chinese exports. Whether the reduction really happens depends strongly on the further weather development. Snow and rain prevents timely corn sowing. As a rule, in such cases, the late sowing compatible soybean is grown.In any case, Chinese soybean portraits are expected to be of longer duration due to the 20% pig-piggery-related reduction in pig production. An essential word will also have a say in the results of the negotiations. The global rapeseed harvest estimates the USDA surprisingly by 2 million t higher at approx. 74 million t. Consumption is estimated to be just over 71 million tonnes. This results in a worldwide increase in overhang stocks with corresponding consequences for prices. In the case of the EU , the USDA assumes a rapeseed harvest of less than 20 million tonnes. This assessment largely coincides with the local forecasts. However, the forecast of the Canadian harvest to an unchanged 21.1 million t compared to the previous year is surprising. Only some time ago, the Canadian statistical office published a projection for the 19 million t due to the area survey. The background is the import blockade of China for Canadian oilseed rape . This involves the order of magnitude of 4 to 5 million t. half of Canadian exports.The Canadians are sitting on their rapeseed with the result that the rape prices have collapsed. There may be a need for correction here. The production of vegetable oils continues to be driven by the two market leaders palm oil and soya. For the year 2019/20, palm oil production is expected to increase by a further 2.6%, while the growth rate for soybean oil is expected to be smaller. In terms of final stocks , the stocks of vegetable oils remain at a high level. The USDA has announced a comprehensive reissue of the oilseeds report for June 11, 2019.
