USDA updates global oilseed supply: Production +4.4%, consumption +3.4%
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated the global oilseed supply 2024/25 in its latest June 24 issue. According to this, production is set to increase by +4.4%, while consumption is expected to rise by 3.4%. This means that stocks will increase significantly. At just under 144 million tons, this is the highest level in years.
At over 60%, soybeans hold the largest share of the oilseed market and are considered one of the two market leaders alongside palm oil. Future production is estimated to be +6.7% higher than the previous year, while consumption is estimated to be +5.2% higher.
Brazil is the world's largest producer with an expected 169 million tons, of which 105 million tons will be exported in the form of whole beans. Around 20 million tons of soybean meal will also be exported.
The USA is in 2nd place with an estimated soybean harvest of 121 million tons in autumn 2024. Of this, almost 50 million tons of beans and 16 million tons of meal will be exported.
After years of weather-related declines,Argentina is increasing its future soybean production to 51 million tons, most of which will be processed domestically. Soybean oil exports are estimated at 5.5 million tons and soybean meal exports at 27 million tons.
China produces around 20.7 million tons of soya and will continue to import 105 million tons. The majority of this comes from Brazil.
The EU-27 is expected to achieve a soy production of just under 3 million tons. To supply this, 14 million tons of beans, 16 million tons of meal and 0.5 million tons of oil will be imported.
The USDA has reduced the global rapeseed harvest by around 1.5 million tons to 87 million tons. The two largest growing regions, Canada and the EU-27, together produce 45% of the global volume. China accounts for 15 million tons and India for 12 million tons. Global rapeseed consumption is estimated to remain unchanged at 87 million tons. The supply situation remains tight.
Palm oil production is only growing slightly compared to previous years. Stagnation is expected for 2024/25. In the vegetable oil sector, palm oil has a market share of 35% and therefore has a considerable influence on oil-rich oilseeds such as rapeseed.
