Palm oil production declining seasonally - high inventories - low prices
Palm oil is the market leader in the vegetable oils and fats. The production share is over 30%. Palm oil prices are the lowest among vegetable oils regularly. Therefore, the palm oil market supplies trend-setting targets for the other oilseed markets.
Approximately 90% of world palm oil production will take place in Malaysia and Indonesia. Under tropical conditions of 25 to 30 degrees and about 2,000 mm, the trees over a useful life of 35 years produce precipitation on average 6,000 t / ha of vegetable oil. For comparison, 1 ha of oilseed rape in Europe between 1,200 to 2,000 creates ltr.
The palm oil production in the year 2014 was affected by two weather events. The weather phenomenon El Nino has prematurely terminated the year typical climax with his drought impact in the Oct. 14. A flooding in Malaysia has damaged large parts of oil plantations.
Despite the loss of production, stock levels still above current production levelsare. The exports are less than average level. The low price of crude oil will make sure that the outflow of raw materials towards biodiesel is more inhibited.
For the next few months to April May 2015 which falls back palm oil production for seasonal reasons regularly by 30%. With refitting of monsoon rain and average expected weather conditions an rebound until Oct 2015 is to refrain. Regional effects in the floodplains can contribute to a lower increase in production.
The price of crude oil will take decisive influence on the more market and price development, which in turn depends on the development of the world economy.
The current palm oil prices are flying high in the magnitude of less than $800 per t now again on a below-average level around the $650 fallen per t. The additional forward rates in the course of the year 2015 show clearly in the direction of just above $600 per t in anticipation of producing seasonal again ansteigenen.
