05.
04.23
Prices stable

Schweine News, 04/05/2023

Bullish
  • Low live supply
  • low cold store stocks
  • persistently low advance bookings
  • Fresh meat shop for Easter holidays
Bearish
  • slowing demand due to inflation
  • insufficient third country export

Germany: V price 2.33 €/kg (range 2.33 - 2.38 €/kg) - the weekly slaughter figures are somewhat higher at 747,160 pigs ( previous week 732,185), the slaughter weights have not changed at 97.2 kg changes. With 237,900 pigs (previous week 239,300 ), the pre-registrations remain well below the average of previous years. At the ISN auction on Tue, Apr 04In 2023, an average price of €2.40/kg -3 ct/kg was achieved at the pre-auction within a range of €2.39 to €2.41/kg. The supernatant was 66%. The V price has been retained at €2.33/kg in a range of €2.33 to €2.38/kg for the period from April 6th, 2023 to April 12th, 2023; ASF : As of April 4th, 2023, 5,219 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. The focus of the most recent finds was in Brandenburg and in the district of Dresden. The first core zones in other areas have already been lifted. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark , prices in the 14th week of 2023 were increased by +3 ct/ kg to a calculated €1.93/kg . This further narrows the gap to the other countries. In Belgium, prices are in the 14thCW 2023 has been retained unchanged at €2.21/kg . The live supply is becoming scarcer due to the export of slaughter pigs, but meat sales are still difficult. In the Netherlands , the prices in the 14th week of 2023 have been maintained unchanged with a comparable calculated €2.21/kg . In France/Brittany, prices remained unchanged at €2.38/kg . Slaughter figures remain at a low 358,109 pigs. Slaughter weights have increased to 96.27 kg. In Italy, the listings in the 14th week of 2023 increased by a further 2 ct/kg . Despite restrained consumer demand, the living supply remains too small. In Spain, the prices in the 14th week of 2023 were increased again by 1 ct/kg at a comparable €2.64/ kg. High animal losses as a result of the PRRS epidemic ensure that the domestic supply is tight. Pigs are brought in from abroad.The Spanish Pig Association fears that ASF will be introduced as a result of the large number of piglet imports. In the USA/IOWA, prices have fallen to the equivalent of €1.50/kg . The battle numbers have increased little. The part prices are inconsistent and tend to fall somewhat. Cold store inventories have increased. Stock market listings for the summer months remain below €2/kg. Brazil: The producer prices have been lowered again on average to 1.55 €/kg with REAL weakening again. Exports in the first two months of 2023 were 11% up on the same period last year. The main sales areas remain China/HK, South Korea and the Philippines. China: Prices fell again in mid-March 2023 to the equivalent of €2.80/kg . The demand for meat remains seasonally weak. Government stock purchases to stabilize prices are only having a moderate effect. Prices on the Dalian stock exchange of the equivalent of 3.24 €/kg will only be traded again for Sep.23. The number of sows increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month Febr.fallen in 2023. Conclusion: The Easter business is over. The post-Easter period, which is usually characterized by price weakness, will be exciting. However, cold store stocks are low and so is the live supply. The current demand for meat is still cautious.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Despite the absence of slaughter days due to public holidays, the low live supply prevents possible price reductions. Fresh meat is urgently needed for the Easter holidays. There are only a few goods in the cold stores. In view of the tight supply situation, it is hard to believe whether the usual post-Easter lull will also take place this year.

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