17.
05.23
Pig prices unchanged

Schweine News, 05/17/2023

Bullish
  • persistently low battle numbers
  • continued low pre-registrations
  • scarce cold storage supplies
  • upcoming barbecue season
Bearish
  • restrained demand
  • increased consumer prices
  • declining export business

Germany: V price 2.33 €/kg (range 2.33 – 2.38 €/kg) The weekly slaughter figures are still below average with 744,006 pigs ( previous week due to public holidays 640,257), the slaughter weights have remained the same at 97.4 kg Pre-registrations remain below the average of previous years with pigs (previous week 245,650) . At the ISN auction on Tue, May 16th.In 2023, an average price of €2.41/kg or +1 ct/kg compared to the pre-auction was achieved in a range of €2.41 to €2.42/kg. The V price has been retained for the period from May 18, 2023 to May 24, 2023 at €2.33/kg in a range of €2.33 to €2.38/kg; ASP : As of May 5th. In 2023, 5,317 wild boar infected with ASF were officially confirmed in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. In April 2023, 88 cases of ASF were reported. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, the prices in the 20th week of 2023 were calculated at 2.04 €/kg and remained unchanged. In Belgium, the prices in the 20th week of 2023 have remained unchanged at €2.21/kg for several weeks. The live supply is limited, but meat sales are slowing down.In the Netherlands , the prices in the 20th week of 2023 remained unchanged at a comparable calculated €2.22/kg . In France/Brittany, the prices were set at €2.154/kg, a further 3 ct/kg lower . Battle numbers remain low due to public holidays; the slaughter weight has increased by +1.5 kg. In Italy , the listings in the 20th week of 2023 have been reset by a further 3 ct/kg . The increased consumer prices are also depressing demand. In Spain, the prices in the 20th week of 2023 remained unchanged at a comparable €2.64/ kg for the umpteenth time. Although the slaughtering capacities are not fully utilized, the high price level is slowing down sales opportunities at home and abroad. In the USA/IOWA, the prices have risen slightly again to the equivalent of €1.52/kg. The prices for cuts show isolated upward potential.Cold store inventories remain high. Stock exchange listings for Aug-23 have risen to €1.77/kg, but are well below expectations. A US court decision for more animal welfare is slowing stock increases. Brazil: Producer prices have risen to €1.63/kg on average with stronger REAL. The price range between the south-eastern surplus area and regions close to consumers is widening. The export business increased by around 20% in April compared to the previous month. China: Prices remain stable at the beginning of May 2023 at the equivalent of €2.59/kg . The demand for meat is seasonally weak. On the Dalian Stock Exchange, the equivalent of €2.95/kg is being traded. Government stock purchases are brought back into play in the face of sustained losses of over €20/pig. Conclusion: slaughter days that are canceled due to public holidays are still slowing down a possible price increase for the time being. Favorable barbecue weather, however, opens up price scope.There will be an opportunity for this in the coming Pentecost week.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Rising pork prices are a long time coming. The living supply remains small. Cold store stocks are also low. However, public holidays are curbing demand from slaughterhouses. Meat sales remain low due to inflation. However, the expectation of an increasing demand for grills is unbroken.

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