28.
06.23
It's 2.50 €/kg

Schweine News, 06/28/2023

Bullish
  • still scarce living supply
  • declining slaughter weights
  • low advance bookings
  • small cold store supplies
  • hardly increaseable imports
Bearish
  • restrained consumption

Germany: V price 2.50 €/ kg (range 2.43 – 2.50 €/kg)The weekly slaughter figures are smaller at 693,015 pigs ( previous week 708,899) , the slaughter weights are somewhat lower at 97.0 kg . The pre-registrations remain at a comparatively low level with 234,500 pigs (previous week 238,100) . At the ISN auction on Tue, Jun 27In 2023, an average price of €2.57/kg or -2 ct/kg was achieved at the pre-auction in a range of €2.56 to €2.575/kg. The V price has been set at €2.50/kg for the period from June 29th, 2023 to July 5th, 2023 within a range of €2.43 to €2.50/kg. ASF : As of June 23, 2023, 5,442 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. A total of 70 cases were identified for the month of May 2023. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, the comparably calculated prices of €2.04/kg were repeatedly retained unchanged in the 26th week of 2023. In Belgium, the prices will be increased by +2 ct/kg in the 26th week of 2023 at €2.32/kg . In the Netherlands, prices are in the 26thKW 2023 with comparably calculated 2.34 €/kg retained unchanged. In France/Brittany, the prices will be increased by +5 ct/kg to €2.245/kg . Battle numbers fall again to 347,253; the slaughter weight is 95.25 kg. In Italy , the listings in the 26th week of 2023 have been increased by a further 3 ct/kg . The supply is scarce, the demand revives with increasing numbers of holidaymakers. In Spain, the prices in the 26th week of 2023 remained unchanged at a comparable €2.64/ kg for the umpteenth time. Sales difficulties at home and abroad are exacerbated by the high price level. In the USA/IOWA, the rollercoaster ride is driving prices back up to €1.91/kg. Battle numbers have fallen sharply. Barbecue season ensures steady demand. The stock exchange prices for Jul.-23 are listed at 1.88 €/kg, for Oct.-23 however only at 1.60 €/kg.Brazil: Average producer prices have continued to rise to €1.50/kg . The living supply remains small due to the temperature. Prices in the listing areas are again diverging. Pork exports are limited, while sales of beef to China are increasing significantly. China: Prices increased significantly in June to €2.68/kg. The background is the demand-boosting Dragon Boat Festival as one of 3 major festivals in China. The Sep. 23 rates are traded at the equivalent of €2.70/kg. Only for the consumption-intensive month of Jan 2024 is it again expected to be over 3 €/kg. Conclusion: The start of the vacation period makes meat sales more difficult. With a low supply of live animals and limited reserves, however, higher prices cannot be ruled out. The example of France showed it.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Price increases in a high-price phase can only be pushed through if there are clear signs of scarcity. Despite the start of holidays with subdued demand, the supply is only able to cover demand to a limited extent. According to the results of the livestock census, the supply of slaughter pigs will not increase in the coming months, but will tend to decrease. That gives hope!

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