USDA estimate of U.S. pork production for 2015
The U.S. pork production has been stagnant for two years. The key reason is the PEDv plague, a deadly diarrhoea disease in piglets. The epidemic began in the spring of 2013 and spread throughout the winter and summer of the year 2014 to the country as a whole. An estimated 15% piglet losses had to be coped with in the peak of the disease turn in Feb/March 2014. From 5 to 8 kg of higher Mastendgewichten was controlled against, so that for 2014 a decrease of only 4-5% remains.
Domestic consumption and exports had to be easily returned. Prices however unusual heights reached up to €2 per kg in the biggest deficit month Aug. 2014.
The disease is always still not banned, but the weekly newly reported cases have fallen to less than one-third compared to the peak. The test is still in the cold season, when the hygiene and disinfection measures lose effectiveness.
A lesser extent, of the disease turn is assumed for the year 2015. Higher vigilance, a higher degree of bend forward and first vaccine with a limited effect should keep the extent of the damage within limits. The production will be 10.7 million tons and 3.6%, respectively higher estimated and thus easily exceed the prior-year level. The domestic consumption to 1.8 per cent put on and the exports are 5.7% increase.
The USDA estimates average pork price level of $ €1.60 / kg SGfor the year 2015. Measured the projected price in the upper mid-range's recent multi-year averages. The high price level is supported by the high beef prices, moving above the mark of €5 per kg.
Despite the rise in consumer prices is only slightly decreased meat consumption. Even a rising poultry meat production and consumption has can change it just a little.
