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09:46

Agricultural markets at the turn of the year: Schweinefleisch market 2015

Agricultural markets 2015:Pork markets in major regions of the world

The global pork market has been in the recent years growth rates of 1.5% to 2% both to exhibit in production as at the consumption. As a predominant fresh meat business incurs no significant excess stocks.

The U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) forecast but only an increase of 1.1%for the year 2015 . This includes developments in major production and consumption countries are shown:

  • ·      China's largest pig-farming has had in the first half of 2014 high economic losses as a result of low pig prices in relation to high feed costs. The sows stocks were reduced by 9% with a focus in the backyard attitudes. The missing piglet production could not fully compensated by other measures to improve productivity. The projections for 2015 denominated in a below-average Chinese production increased by 1.5%. However, demand growth is estimated to be unchanged high + 2.2%. The consequences include higher pork imports from China and Hong Kongs, aimed at reaching the magnitude of 1.35 million tons or an increase of + 17% . To contact the Chinese at the top of the importing countries ahead of Japan with 1.25 million tonnes and Russia with formerly 0.9 million tonnes.
  • ·      The second largest production and export area, the European Union was 2014 hit hard by the Russian import barriers . The EU internal market demand has been stagnant for years. He has found partial paragraph alternatives in Asia including Japan, South Korea and Philippines rd. 10% surplus after the Elimination of Russia's exports. The EU prices fell to ruinous values far below the multi-annual average of €1.55 / kg. In almost all EU Member States the pig production is stagnating. For the year 2015 the EU Expert Group anticipates a minimal decline of - 0.15%. The most recent pig census in Germany supported this assessment.

It is not expected that the Russian import lock is released, because most likely the trigger of African swine fever and Ukraine conflict throughout the year 2015 remain in effect. Even in the case of a border opening possible exports towards Russia would be very low, because the local incomes and the purchasing power of the Russian currency, reduced to 70% constitute almost prohibitively expensive pork imports.  The EU must continues the costly search for marketing alternatives. The EU pig prices remain under pressure with some seasonal increases during Grill.

  • ·           2004 prices and record profits as a result of PEDv disease and scarce beef volume have benefited the world's third largest production area with a leading position in the United States pork exports. The latest livestock surveys allow for 2015 an increase in production between 4% to 5.5% . The extent of deadly diarrhea disease in piglets (PEDv) focusing remains uncertain in the cold months of Jan. and Feb 2015. However intensified precautionary measures should receive better handle the problem up to 15% than last year with piglet failure rates.

Pork demand in the United States , will both remain highly classified in abroad as foreign. To a considerable extent, persistently missing quantities of beef in the United States are replaced by pork. With again average US hog prices 2015 the competitiveness in the international business is better, so that with increasing U.S. export volumes will be calculated.

  • ·           The high hopes of Brazil (in 4th place in the global pork market) on the business of Russia have plummeted. As a major exporting country, Brazil should increase its exports of 580,000 and 700,000 tonnes in 2015 and replace a significant part of the Russian imports failed the import lock. The approaches were also available, but demand higher Brazilian pork prices, high transport costs and recently the collapse of the Russian ruble bring business to a standstill. Again almost "normal" pig prices in Brazil are the consequence and the Brazilian search intensifies again after paragraph alternatives in import markets. These efforts set the remaining pork export States such as the United States, the EU and Canada under pressure.

Conclusion: The global 2015 Schweinefleisch market grows only half as much as in previous years. Larger increase is expected only in the United States, where a significant range expansion is expected due to the typical behavior of the price cycle. In the EU remain largely unchangedquantities. The below-average growth in Chinese production is not sufficient for the increase in consumption. China will import 2015 much more pork and is similar to partially back from Russia import failure. The lack purchasing power in Russia caused a sustained decline in demand in 2015, from which the EU remains the hardest hit. Paragraph alternatives have to be conquered in other countries about the price. Competitors the United States's major export areas, EU, Canada and Brazil with are together a trade share of approximately 85%.

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