China needs more pork

China's pork production on the way of recovery - remains rising import demand

The sharp decline in pig farms in China in the year 2014/15 to recover.  The American USDA Office in Beijing has collected new data indicate that in the transition from 2015 to 2016 pig himself again can settle on a multi-annual average of 700 million pieces.

Cause of the recent decline in production was the low profitability at State minimum price guarantees of $350 per t of cereals and $480 per t soybean meal. Offering pork, scarcer has driven Chinese pork prices temporarily to about €3.50 / kg. In conjunction with temporarily reduced feed prices, profitability prospects look considerably better.

You begin to sow numbers decreased 12% to stabilise. The higher productivity of the remaining herd of sows delivers significantly more piglets per sow and year. Increasing numbers of battle are expected in connection with lower loss rates in the commercially-operated stables.

The so far relatively small fall in meat production is related to the strong sow slaughter and 20 kg higher slaughter weights together.  Also for the year 2016, the volume of pork is not yet to reach the level of the previous two years.

For years ever-increasing consumption of pork is inevitably came to halt. Less sharply rising incomes and high consumer prices have slowed consumption slightly. However, pork remains the primary source of protein for Chinese consumers.

The missing quantities between domestic production and consumption were partially offset by growing imports, costing based on carcass weight, imports reach a magnitude of 800,000 tonnes (without Hong Kong) in 2015.  An increase to 830,000 t carcass weight is predicted for the following year.   The import amounts to 1.45 million tonnes (excluding Hong Kong) to rise on a product basis.  

The multiple devaluation of the Chinese currency more expensive imports, so that previous growth rates won't be reached. However, pork imports remain still 25% cheaper than the expensive Autoproduction.

The largest supplier of Chinese pork imports, the EU is an ever-increasing share of the market. However it is under €1.40 / kg of packaged goods less valuable pieces of the pigs with an average export earnings. The United States have problems with the use of the growth promoter Ractopamine, which is not allowed in China.

Chinese pork prices are currently alive around 14 to 15 yuan per kg. Equivalent result limited comparable pork price of 2.60-€2.80 / kg. In the meantime, the Chinese prices were depending on the exchange rate also significantly above the 3 €/ kg mark.

Transport technical problems maintaining quality and not least import interests the Chinese market bar itself fails to deliver the (preferred) show pork sides at these prices from the EU, to China.

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