China pork production falters - import demand

China's rising pork production has been stalled.

A growing population with increasing income in China has ensured that the pork production in the average of the last ten years between 1.5 to 2.5% per year has increased. This growth phase is interrupted for the time being.

The recent livestock census results from the April 2015 to determine that the number of pigs from 416 million to 18.6 million pigs has declined in the first four months of the year 2015. Compared to the previous month of April 2014, the redemption is about 9.4%.

Particularly strong inventory reductions have occurred with - 3.2 million in the sows. The Chinese sows herd now slips under the 40 million units mark.  (For comparison: in Germany there are approximately 2 million sows)

However, the productivity of sow housing with 16.5 pigs per sow is relatively modest.

Cause of the massive Deleveraging of the pig is the lack of efficiency in the marketing year 2014 with losses per pig up to $50. Both backyard attitudes as well large positions in financial difficulty and have adjusted the management. Functional systems were bought by larger units.

Chinese pork prices were €2.48 per kg on level average for Chinese relationships almost in April 2015. For the next few months, expect a top prize to the value of €3.25 per kg.

To relativize the to keep food prices, however,are. Corn costs around €380 per mt and soybean meal to €475 per t.  End of may are expected on average a profit of 7 to €8 per sold Porker.

The consumer price inflation for food are around 1.5%. Pork is involved in the inflation index with a share of about 33%. The State-controlled upper limit of inflation is 3%.

The economic growth is currently at 7.5% quite small compared to previous years.

The only little diminished demand for pork leads to increasing import volumes from a variety of exporting countries. The EU and the United States as the world's largest exporters of pork, hope to win a part of it. However it does not involves valuable pieces.

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