China's influence on the global meat market:
ASF-related boom phase over - rising trend remains.
The recent African swine fever (ASF) epidemic in China led to an extremely strong import of meat in the years 2019 to 2022. At times, the Chinese trade share amounted to around 48% of the global market for pork and around a third for beef. These huge increases in demand have driven international meat prices above average. The global FAO meat price index has risen by 25 % during this period, but is still 15 % higher recently than at the beginning.
Chinese imports initially concentrated very heavily on pork, with a sudden doubling. With the rebuilding of domestic production, import volumes have subsequently fallen back significantly, but are still at the level of the pre-ASP period. China remains the world's largest pork importing country with around 2 million tons and a global trade share of around 24%, ahead of Japan (1.4 million tons).
Beef imports have increased even more strongly. In contrast to pork, there has been a tenfold increase over the last 15 years from 0.3 to 3.5 million tons in recent times. The background to this development is, on the one hand, the change in the consumption habits of higher income groups towards higher-quality meat consumption and, on the other hand, the limited Chinese possibilities for beef production with a very limited amount of less efficient agricultural land of 0.37 ha per inhabitant. The arable land per inhabitant is only 800 square meters per inhabitant (for comparison: Germany 1,800 square meters). A slight decline in beef imports is expected in 2024 due to income and prices.
At first glance, the comparatively low increases in poultry meat imports are surprising. After all, it is a very inexpensive type of meat that is produced and traded in large quantities worldwide. The main reason for China's restraint is the poultry virus, some variants of which have also become dangerous for humans in China.
From a long-term perspective, it can still be assumed that China will remain dependent on meat imports in the long term, as production opportunities at home are very limited. In the case of pork, it is politically deliberate not to aim for a 100 % self-sufficiency level, because any shortfall (especially by-products) can be imported at favorable import prices. A controlled domestic shortage in this meat sector should contribute to stable prices that cover costs as far as possible.
