Serious setback of the Chinese pork production - again increasing imports from the EU?
China's pig fell after the latest livestock inventory in the may-to - 3.4% compared with the same month last year. The sow numbers were even to - 7.5% reduced. Almost 1.5 million sows were alone in the last 3 months from March to may including slaughtered and not replaced. The sow is the lowest for 2 years.
The backyard attitudes that make up still 35% Chinese pig farms are instrumental for the development of this unusual in China. The proportion of those who finally give up the pigs, is getting bigger.
The decisive cause of the reduction of Chinese pig production is the economic losses of 20-€25 per pig. For the month of April 2014 even rd. €42 were calculated loss per pig.
At the beginning of the month July 2014 were Chinese producer prices close to €2 per kg, approximately 12.5% lower than in the same month last year. The value of a 25 kg pig can quantify rd. €75, approximately 23% less than in the same month in 2013. The corn quotes at 30 € per dt and for soybean meal has to be paid each dt rd. €48.50. When Chuck uses between 1 to 3.5 to 4 no viable production can be despite low wages and stable space costs represent.
The numerous sow slaughter ran initially for a wide range of pork. After initial rises of in consumer prices on the occasion of the new year Festival in Jan/Feb. 2014, these have fallen back. Pork accounts for about 10% of the average Chinese household expenditure. The subsequent expenditure total are approximately 30% of the average income.
The significant reductions in the number of sows with the turn of the year will lead to significant reductions in the volume of pork. This is true with the Chinese new year celebrations end Jan 2015. It is foreseeable that Chinese pork prices will again get lift already in advance of this foreseeable development. However, stocks due to low cooling capacity is only limited performance.
Given the high importance of pork consumption in the Chinese diet, the Government will do everything to ensure a sufficient supply of electricity in the country. In the remaining time a reconstruction of the pig can not succeed, is to be expected with increased imports. Currently moderate EU exports could benefit from it, especially since the United States due to their PEDv disease are only restrictedly available for delivery.
