China's pig fall - end of a decades-long expansion phase? - export opportunities for the EU?
China is the largest pork producer in the world. More than 50% of all pigs are kept here. In the last two decades, the development of knew annual growth rates of 1.5 to 2%. There were some seuchen - and weather-related burglaries, which are but the country quickly recovered.
The rising pork production was necessary to meet the increasing nutritional demands of the growing Chinese population with rising incomes . The per capita consumption is just under 40 kg per year.
In the Last 2 years the herds are initially in a period of stagnation and recently in a significant downward trend advised. The development with sharply declining numbers of sows, which reached its nadir in the first two months of the year to the typical Chinese new year Festival has started. You have been to one-third in the backyard attitudes slaughtered bred sows for the holiday roast, but fully repeats again in the course of the year. The reason was a fundamental structural change to larger units, the structure of which was however hampered by high feed costs. The Chinese pig farmers wrote months red numbers. The Government paid although subsidies, but without fundamental changes to effect.
This development continues in the recent time. However, food costs have significantly reduced. Only with 48 million sows expects for the year 2014, one year before it was 50.5 million animals. For the first months of the year 2015 of seasonally low stock of sows on 43 million pieces to shrink, leaving the question open, in how far a recovery occurs in the course of the year.
The entire pig fell off only significantly in the following years due to the missing pig. But a better average fertility of remaining stocks of sows has mitigated the decline a little.
For China the question arises whether and to what extent you so accept the stagnation to decline in the pig sector. Can one assume that a certain saturation limit consumption is reached? Milk and beef is actually in other food sectors to observe that a broader range of food products in the high-end quality segment is desired. However, the quantities on a large scale must be imported.
On the other hand, has China significant environmental problems, which are compounded with a growing pigs. Also the recurrent disease problem is to create in the juxtaposition of hygienically questionable backyard attitude and the emerging large mast units.
The declining volume of pork has led to rising prices on the order of magnitude of €2.40 / kg , according to the prices in the meantime to €2 per kg have fallen. In principle, Chinese prices move according to market rules, but the State has a watchful and strict eye on that consumer prices do not exceed certain limits. The security of supply for wide layers of population is a top priority.
Should the Chinese pig numbers remain low, the question of pork imports from third countries is again becoming acute. It also has some chances for the heel in the EU can be derived even if it is not the most valuable pieces.
