Close relationship between battle figures and pork prices

Pig prices to 90%, relationship to the battle figures

Taking out 2014/15 weekly slaughter numbers and V prices the year is from the extensive data material to the pork market, a surprisingly close relationship relationship is concluded. The correlation calculation results in a coefficient of 0.9, i.e. the price changes respond to 90% with opposing development battle levels.

However, there are some adjustments to make. To approaching battle figures are formed from a moving 3-weeks - average value and delayed at the most recent V price relationship.  

The period was deliberately chosen to the faults until mid-2014, caused by the Russia import ban to exclude.  In this way, the price-influencing conditions could be obtained largely homogeneous.

The price developments allow to understand in this way. The price low to the turn of the year is closely linked with the increased numbers of battle, which significantly exceeded the 1 million PCs brand. In addition, the sales weakness may have played at this time of year of a certain role.

Falling slaughter numbers just below to just over 1 million units brand had the pork prices from 1.28 to €1.50 / kg. This, also the demand side of the ongoing stockpiling of Grill may have played a role.  The PLH action likely threw little weight in the prize Bowl with their previous 55,000 tonnes of less valuable pieces.

At a staggering battle numbers and rates , it comes out that a moving change 35,000 slaughter each week can be expected a price change of €0.10 per kg with 90% probability.

The above relations are understood guidance . Should the conditions of the pork market basically move, is a review of these vertices. A such fundamental change is neither Russia nor in the internal market.

The African swine fever in Poland and the Baltic Statesremains threatening. The average increase in offer from the United States will hold the EU despite favouring exports due to the weak euro in check. The previous successful efforts to create replacement for the missing Russia imports reaching limits.

The combination of previous numbers of battle and the reservations is a helpful support to estimate future prices for price forecasts . You should not keeping the seasonal history at a glance on the demand side, but without taking into account the current situation. Historical experiences provide valuable clues, can be streamed, but not 1:1 to the present.

90% are not 100%, but significantly more than poking around in the fog!

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