Preview of the European Commission: more pork in 2015 and 2016
In the regular summer edition of short deadlines previews on key agricultural markets, the Commission predicts a pork production for the year 2015 amounting to 23.4 million tonnes. The increase for the year is 2.8% consumption page assuming of 21.38 million tons with an increase by 2.3%. Per head of population, a consumer from 32.7 kg calculates. Referred to the pork consumption amounts to just 50% of the total meat consumption.
The EU self-sufficiency rate is estimated at 110%.
The trade surplus should be according to the preliminary figures 2.055 million tonnes (carcass weight). The increase to the previous year is + 7.1% despite Russia import lock. Meaningless pork imports is moving in a range of 0.07%.
Pig prices 2015 extrapolated for the entire EU territory to a value of about €1.45 per kg related to the commercial grade E for 2016 the Commission estimates on the value of 23.6 million tonnes the EU pork production again to 0.9% larger NET. On the other hand is estimated consumption only by 0.2% higher. The per capita consumption changes this slightly. Also, the self-sufficiency rate of 110% will remain at the same level.
The forecast figures reveal that the Commission assumes that the currently weak profitability of pork production in the EU has so far raised no serious adjustment processes . Should verify the preview, is still depressed pork prices to the account. Possibly falling feed costs could bring some relief. Even a small improvement in the export figures as a result of stronger Chinese demand is possible; However, the export earnings include only a low value.
The first evaluable livestock census results in 6 EU countries with the result that the sow numbers to - 2.4% are lower down provide a ray of hope. Germany is all Valentine with a decline of 2.1%, in Belgium, it should be-7% fewer sows and in Denmark, smaller stocks of sows were determined by - 1.4%.
Fewer sows with limited performance of piglets could contribute to less slaughter pigs and pork. However, this process takes nine months, until a significant effect appears good.
