Commission estimates till 2025 little changed pork market

Commission: review and preview on the pork market by 2025

Above-average high pig prices have resulted in 2014 and 2015 2012 and 2013 as a result of increased export opportunities to Russia and China over the years in the following years a 5% increase in the production in the EU.

The sudden import stop of Russia's cost 0.75 million tons export lossin the year 2014. The temporary decline of Chinese imports was additional pressure on the EU market. The export sector, other markets in South Korea, efforts to open up to the Philippines, Japan and import regions using other pork, have been successful though, not sufficient but in the sum, to compensate for the failure of Russia's completely.

So far leading North American export competition with a focus on United States had expanded 2013/14 pigmeat production PEDv epidemic in the winter to 7% by 2015. With limited domestic sales urged more U.S. exports on the world market and ensured sustained low prices with courses, which tended in recent times even below EU level. US producer prices recorded in the Dec. 15 just above the €1.03 / kg mark. In Brazil, the figures to €1.20 / kg vary depending on the location of the exchange rate.

In its medium-term preview on the pork market by 2025 the Commission initially for 2016 estimates a slight increase and then an almost constant production by 2025.  Domestic consumption have exceeded at least its price due to the low increase in the year 2016. More is expected any increase in subsequent years.

Not significant EU imports, an slightly rising exports to third countries calculated from the outlined market history.

The year 2015 has brought average pork prices to the tune of € 1.40 / kg . The courses were thus rd. €0.20 / kg under the multi-annual average.

For the next few years until 2019 , the Commission anticipates average pork prices at the level of €1.50 / kg. Prices of between 1.60 to €1.70 per kg is estimated subsequently by 2025 .

The preliminary estimates are based on the basis of the existing framework. Fundamental changes of the price cost ratios, consumer behaviour and trade policy decisions, as well as exchange rates can lead to different market developments.

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