EU pigmeat market 2016: who keeps right - USDA or Commission?
In its most recent Oct. 15 issue, the USDA estimates the EU pork production to 22.9 million. t in comparison to the year 2015 with around 23 million tonnes. Domestic consumption is expected to increase from 22.93 to 22,98 million tons in two years. Pork exports will fall according to calculation of the USDA from 2.35 to 2.33 million tons in the year 2016. Result: a slightly falling production meets a slightly stronger demand. The export does not reach the high level of the previous year.
In contrast, the EU Commission in its last summer edition of the short-period analyses increased generating 23,42 in 2015 to 23,63 million tonnes in the year 2016. In comparison, higher production levels and should not fall, but noticeably increase.
On the demand side is the Commission of 21.38 million tonnes consumption in 2015 from, which is expected to increase only modestly to 21,42 million tonnes the following year. In this case, the two estimates of the level and direction of fall apart.
The pork export estimates the EU at 2.05 million tons in 2015, which is expected to increase in the years 2016 to 2.22 million tonnes. Level and direction between two forecasts diverge significantly.
No clear reduction in the EU pig is to check the cattle census results representative producing countries so far to recognize. Certain evidence provide the increased sows figures, however in a size that can be balanced by increasing productivity in piglets production.
This year's weak domestic consumption performance even at low prices and less favourable barbecue provides little reason to assume that the EU domestic consumption is significantly improved.
On the export stands or falls the result with the currency. Still, a weak euro more favors third-country sales compared to the main competitors of United States with a strong US dollar rate. Also supplies talk the U.S. growth promoters Ractopamine to China for the EU among others due to the Chinese reservations against. However, the EU export revenues reach only a limited value to China.
The differences between the two projections are on the other hand, not too huge that unpredictable risks and estimation error not to pry out the plausibility considerations.
