Disease and political instability hold pig prices in check

PEDv and ASF, and Ukraine conflict affect the pork market

The Russian import lock will not be lifted despite all attempts to negotiate a partial relaxation, on the occasion of the green week. The reasons are still strongly present. On the European side of the border after Russia and Belarus African swine fever has been expanded significantly. In Belarus more than half a million pigs because the AFP should be been culled, although messages in the international veterinary authorities are there have been no. The publication of the epidemiological situation is linked to criminal activity in connection, to divert the question of guilt by public regulatory authorities.

The impact of the recent conflict in the Ukraine conflict are substantially cutting. The aggravating confrontation not only the military but also on the political levele the prospect of an early easing of the import lock on a long bench will slide.  Of the EU will remain the hardest hit.

Russian consumers have to deal with sharp cuts. Could be made up only to a small fraction by substitute imports from Brazil and Chile suspended pork imports. An increased own production efforts are only effective in years. While the high inflation rates and foreign interest rates inhibit any greater willingness to invest up to 25% however.  Reduced revenue from energy exports also dampen the available purchasing power of consumers.  The Russian people is not only suffering, but also a great master of improvisation. This applies in particular to the country.

In the United States , the focus is on the spread of PEDv plague, a deadly diarrhoea disease in piglets in the months of February and March 2015. The cold season is experience motor for a high rate of spread, because the hygiene measures will be less effective. It is now proven that the virus on several 1000 km from the wind will spread without risk of infection.

The weekly newly occurring cases are examined by the veterinary authorities and collected. The numbers increase significantly compared to the previous months on and are now halfway to the same period last year. It is hoped that the previous year's amount is not reached, because the arrangements have become much larger and more efficient parts.

The high profits of 2014 in the U.S. pig farming have helped that have increased the US herds by 4% to 5%. 5 kg higher slaughter weights which at the time were intended as partial compensation for missing numbers were retained. Should it succeed, to keep the PEDv plague within limits, is expected in the United States average amounts of pork during the course of the year 2015. The forward rates for the summer period to go diving with values of 1.4 are already $ per kg or according to current rates by $1.12 € from €1.25 per kg.

Largely stable domestic consumption will help that a significant portion of the additional U.S. pork volume in the export is pushed. That in turn will put the international pig prices under pressure. The EU exports of affected will be considered as the second largest exporter of pork to the United States.

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