Swine market 2014: different price prospects in the United States and EU
In its latest edition to the pork market, the EU Commission has published a forecast of hog prices in the EU and the United States for the rest of the year 2014 with the support of the Advisory Group.
In the case of the United States have been over-simplified way behind the current forward prices of the Chicago Stock Exchange. The US quotes show after first flying high above the mark of converted €1.90 per kg in the I. quarter 2014 now an intermediate low level of €1.85 / kg. The PEDv disease losses, which have calmed again after an initial shock phase are cause of this and further development. The decreases of the number of battle have to compensate for the increase of slaughter weights.
In the further course of the II and II quarter is speculation but again with a renewed dominance of U.S. pork prices above the €2 / kg limit. Ensuring this forecast can be refunded in 3 ways:
(1) the greatest extent of PEDv failures will be to date June to August due to the well-known survey statistics in months. The fancy numbers are can be compensated by the slaughter weight increase only partly.
(2) in this period of time into the climax of the grilled meat demand falls.
(3) compensation effects are to the limited possible. The usual storage has failed in the spring months as the cold storage reports to demonstrate. To transfer effect on beef will be limited because the U.S. beef market is also inadequately supplied. A weak balance could be achieved through the growing poultry meat production.
For the IV quarter will be in the United States is expected make a strong price crash on the €1.50 / kg. The reason is seen in the clearly decreasing number of PEDv infections and the weakening demand.
Pork prices in the EU must be substantially quieter. After the shock of the Russian import lock in the Feb-14 with prices below the €1.50 / kg brand have the EU quotes with an unusual barbecue-friendly spring back towards €1.65 / kg moves. Contributed also the relatively modest offerings at Lebendschweinen. The intensive demand summer months is estimated with a price level between 1.75-€1.80 / kg. EU pork prices above the mark of €1,70 / kg are classified for the IV quarter.
the uncertainties about the further development of the Russian imports will remain for the time being.
