Short term outlook: more pork production, more export and prices? In its summer issue of the short photo on Central agricultural markets estimates the EU Commission for the year 2016 with an increase in the volume of pork by + 0.2% to the previous year. At the same time, the consumption in the internal market - 1.6% should go on the back. The difference is absorbed by an enormous increase in pork exports with focus on China by + 18% on 2,45 Mt. Alone in the first 5 months of the year 2016 has China with + 106% of its Imports from the EU doubled. Now 46% of the EU accounts for pork exports to China. To get 9% towards Hong Kong, additional shares go in the Philippines (9%), Japan (9%) , and South Korea (7%). The average export earnings in the business in China Meanwhile rose from below 1.10 to €1.46 / kg. This shows that not only by-products are delivered, even if it is not enough for high-quality fresh products. For the EU Commission estimates the year 2017 is a production increase by 0.8%, which should come to considerable parts from Spain, Poland, Hungary and the United Kingdom. Low increases are predicted for Germany. The consumption of pork % to rebounding according to the estimates In the year 2017 to + 0.6. Thus the previous year decrease is not offset though, but it relies on sustained export increases by + 2% in a range of 2.5 million t. In China of the main customer remains. Follow the estimates of the FAO is China several years need to bring his reduced pig back to its old level. In the meantime, increasing population and rising incomes will contribute more to consumption increases. A Downer delivers the look at the falling hog prices in the United States. Follow the forward rates prevailing on the Chicago will exchange for the autumn/winter 2016/17 pig prices expected to below €1.20 / kg. Are the latest claims of Chinese buyers for contractual deliveries of the next half year from the EU on price discounts from 0.2 to €0.4 / kg. The competition also in Germany will lead to price concessions .
