EU-com: short term Outlook on the pork market

European Commission renewed estimate of EU pork market 2015 and 2016

In its summer issue of short term forecasts, the EU Commission has the EU pigmeat market reassessed a. After several years of decline in production, pork production has grown already in the year 2014 by 2%.  The end of the decline of the sow housing and light productivity gains were crucial.

The increase is made up in 2015 at an estimated magnitude of 2.7% on. While the greater part of the increase falls in the first half of the year.  In the second part of the year, the rates of increase to 1.6-1.9% to take off.

The domestic consumption in 2015 is only 2% increase, so that rising export numbers must provide compensation. However, exports comes across borders. Russia exports remains locked and China's imports have to rest. Further deliveries in the direction of Japan, South Korea and the Philippines are already maxed out. In addition, the competition from the United States and Brazil with cheap offers limited outlets. The currently weak prices speak a clear language in the BBQ season 2015.

The production forecast for the year 2016 amounts to a lower growth of 0.9%. The insufficient profitability of pig farming in 2015 takes its toll. The first livestock census results indicate a lower sow inventory.

On the consumption page 2016 , the Commission estimates, after all, still an increase of consumption by 0.2%. Continued strong exports must also provide 2016 for market equilibrium. To what extent still a favourable euro exchange rate boosted exports, remains uncertain.

In two years 2015 and 2016 is expected with a self-sufficiency rate of 110%, underlining the need for a functioning export. This is not to be expected that the Russian borders in political and financial terms are open again so quickly.

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