Corrected Preview on the quarterly hog slaughter in the EU - seasonal price increase expected in the summer.
On the basis of data from mid-April, the Working Group of the Commission has published a revised estimate for the remainder of the battle figures 2015.
The earlier forecast of a nearly unchanged quarterly battle number in the two first quarters of 2015 on the basis of the actual data transformed into an increase of each + 1.8% in two quarters. Thus, the observations of the weekly slaughter confirm in Germany.
A same high volume of battle of + 1.8% in the period from April to June 2015 falls while in the barbecue season, however, which will be thus the expected price improvement to a hard test.
For the III quarter 2015 the battle figures should 0.4% lag compared to the high prior-year figures. In the period from July to September 2014 were the slaughter to + 2.8% on the previous year. In effect, the absolute numbers remain in the autumn 2015 still above the multi-annual average.
For the 4th quarter 2015 be 0.1% less slaughter predicted compared to the high figures of the previous year's period. Also in this case remain the absolute values above the multi-annual average.
The quarterly battle figures provide the basis for the assessment of pork prices.
In the I. quarter 2015 the EU average of cash register systems S, E, and R comes up €1.40 per kilogram. This result is largely secured by actual price quotes.
II: quarter should prices just below the €1.50 kg brand for the same trade classes provide. Given the current market and price developments, still a considerable price increase would have to enter in the coming weeks and months.
For the III quarter should rise the price level by July 2015 including Sept rd. 1.58 € per kg. The justification should be considered on the one hand in the demand-beneficiary barbecue as well as the projected decline in the number of battle. You can lead a growing support for export as an argument in the field, assuming exchange rates remain at the current level.
The last quarter 2015 should push prices down to 1.47 EUR / kg . Leaking barbecue business and continuing high numbers of battle are likely to stand behind it.
The originally scheduled lift of the Russian import ban beginning August 2015 hardly still plays a role in view of the ongoing political and financial developments.
