EU pigmeat market: prospects for the next 10 years

Preview of the EU pigmeat market 2015-2025 - less consumption - more export

The European Commission publishes at regular intervals short - and medium-term perspectives on key agricultural markets. In the 1. /. 2. Dec. 2015 were the prospects for the pork market presented.

After the conversion of pig farming on the new EU conditions an significant increase in the production has been in the years 2014 and 2015 to observe.  This development still holds up in recent times. However, the first signs of a decline in pig production are due to the cattle counts at the sow inventory to determine.

For the coming years by 2025 acceptance is social environmental restrictions and lack of a throttled growth of pork production as a result increasing. Contrasting developments are shown in the individual EU Member States. In the whole period which is 10 years, increasing production in Germany only to 1.25% or around 75,000 t. In Spain , it is an increase of 2% and for the Netherlands surprising 5% is estimated. Is experiencing the biggest increase Poland with about 7%.  The pork production by around 3%, and in Italy to go back on the other side in Denmark to 2%.

In addition developed a progressive Division of labour. The pig exports from the Netherlands and Denmark towards Germany, Poland and other States should increase further, for better use of the conditions of the site. The most dynamic is to observe between Denmark and Poland . Danish piglets are fattened on a rising scale Polish indoors while a stagnation of pig imports to about 20% of pig needs occurred for Germany. In the case of pork, increasingly Dutch pigs in German slaughterhouses are processed.

The consumption page is assumed by a EU-wide lower pork consumption . Although per capita consumption rises slightly in some Eastern European countries, but is outweighed by the decline in the Western States.

At world level , assuming an ever-increasing demand. About 60% of the world supply deny the EU as the world's largest exporter in connection with the United States. For the coming years, therefore that should EU exports from currently 2 to approximately 2.7 million tonnes (carcass weight) rise. It is assumed that the possible Russia imports will easily reach the level of previous years. However, is expected to import gains significant China, South Korea, Philippines .  European outlets however restrict the competition among the remaining exporters United States, Canada and Brazil.

For current conditions, the Outlook for prices up to the year 2025 in the range of 1.50 to rd. €2 / kg SG sound quite optimistic. After the setback in the year 2015 it will take still a while until these price expectations have been achieved. However you should face rising costs over the next 10 years to do so.

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