EU Commission short term prognosis for 2014/15
In its regular autumn Edition of the short-time forecasts the Commission assumes at the latest quarter 2014 resurgent of pig production in the 4th. Expected for the year 2015 is a 0.8 per cent higher pork production . The increased numbers of sows in Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark and Hungary are the basis for this classification. The increase in production takes place mainly in the old Western EU countries.
On the consumption page is an equal increase as when the production went out. Fancy pork prices should affect consumption stimulates. Per capita consumption should increase in the EU25 average 31.0 on 31.2 kg.
The self-sufficiency of the EU-28 remains at about 110%.
Pork exports braked by the Russian import lock are estimated for the year 2015 at the same level. These are 230.000 tonnes or about 8% less than in the year 2013. A change in the export situation in the direction of Russia is not included because it is assumed that the Russian import lock is more than a year to complete. The counter sanctions be extended or but the ASP cases in Poland and the Baltic States are the cause for the continuation.
Viet Nam, which opens its borders may offer possible chances of an increase in exports in Asia . The export potential are largely exhausted after Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
Should be confirmed forecasts of production, consumption and export, has little positive pig prices can be expected. The current course indicates in the IV quarter. More export opportunities due to weak prices in combination with a less expensive euro and the reduced Brazilian and American exports could provide relaxation. Last but not least, the hope of a better barbecue. The fallen food prices are than to throw compensation of part of in the pan.
