EU working group: pig prices moderate in 2015

EU hog price forecasts 2015: between 1.45 to €1.55 per kg

In its latest edition of the monthly market reports, the Working Group published their ideas about the further course of the pig prices pork to the EU Commission in 2015.

For the United States from the futures price quotes of Chicago is trading off. The American price level was throughout the year 2014 clearly above the European courses. There are the clear explanation of just supplied beef and pork market on the American side. Last year's drought in the breeding areas are cause in cattle, the pig the PEDv epidemic caused a significant battle failures. Despite higher slaughter weights, the volume of meat remained clearly back. The growing U.S. poultry meat industry could not provide a sufficient compensation.

Also for the year 2015 by a while rising U.S. pork production is + 4.3% out, but the increase will not be enough to meet the demand at home and abroad. The estimates assume that the price level will remain above average. The range should be between 1.60 to €1.70 / kg.

In contrast, the EU had to do since the beginning of the year 2014 with the problem of Russian import lock. Russia imported pork per year from the EU, which now abruptly disappeared in previous years to 700,000 t. Complicating the advanced import lock impacted also the other meat markets since early August 2014.

After the first transitory in Feb. 2014 to €1.45 / kg , the EU pig prices as a result of seasonally declining slaughter numbers at the same time increasing demand recovered in the barbecue season. At the beginning of the autumn months with a normal Lebendangebotszunahme and decreasing effect of Grill demand crashed the courses in the EU on the brand of €1.40 / kg. For the upcoming Christmas days are expected to further decline rates. So, also the EU working group appreciates the situation.

The forecasts for the year 2015 based on the basis of a revised evaluation of livestock census results and the assessment of future sales development in the internal market and in third-country business. A fundamental improvement of the country paragraph is not accepted for 2015. A suspension of Russian import locks after a year is not expected. There will be efforts to more markets in small steps.

The domestic market is largely saturated. There are clear signs of reduced herds in some EU Member States such as Italy, France and Spain, as well as some Eastern European countries.

For the first half of 2015 forecast average European pork prices to the 1.45 to €1.50 per kg . For the second half of the courses should the 1,50-er brand in the medium altitudecrossing, where changes in direction can go €1,60 per kg

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