Crash of in hog prices in the last quarter of 2014 - multiple causes
Pork prices at the level of € 1.30 / kg has not given it a long time. From 2009 to 2013, the 5-year average of €1.6 / kg. Up on a small stage of weakness shortly after mid-year V prices moving also 2014 so far slightly above the 1.60 he average brand. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, prices slid incessantly in the basement. It still is an open question after the Christmas period.
What has led to this development?
The Russian import lock exists since the beginning of the month Feb. 2014. There was a slip down to €1.45 per kg, which is but quickly recovered. In March, prices were back above the average line. The temporarily falling weekly battle figures well below the 1 million PCs brand were the cause.
Despite subsequent barbecue pork prices in the further course of the year gave up again. Rising slaughter numbers that overwhelmed the seasonally high domestic demand for missing Russia export were the reason. After all, a medium price level between 1.50 and €1.60 per kg was held by.
The extension of the Russian import lock in Aug. 2014 on more agricultural products has the pig prices only slightly under pressure levels, the slightly above average numbers of battle were crucial.
In the III quarter the battle figures went significantly down and reached magnitude to the 950,000 per week. Despite barbecue cyclical off and extended Russia lock the lower offer was enough to raise the rates on and above average level of €1.60 per kg.
The following permanent increase in the amounts of battle beyond the 1 million PCs brand resulted in the further course of the IV. quarter first a temporary phase of stagnation, which culminated with further range extensions in a drastic price drop to the level of slightly above of €1.30 / kg but.
Should remain the Lebendangebot at a high level, is expected to further decline rates in the face of a few days of battle over the Christmas holidays and time.
As a result, it remains to determine that the production capacity in Germany and EU on one approximately 10% export is assigned to. This outlet goes down and she can be replaced only to a limited extent is to ruin price pressure at too high levels of seasonal offer. Would the third-country market work again imposed, would be the price level clearly above the multi-annual average €1.60 / kg with seasonal peaks around the €1,90 / kg.
The hope of an equivalent return to earlier times should be not satisfiable. In the meantime, other offers from the Russian and abroad have established themselves, which won't be out-competed. Not to mention the political will!
