Evil premonitions for the US pork industry

US pork production: good times (2014) - rainy day (2015)

The year 2014 is celebrated in the United States as the year of the century in the pork industry. In the summer of the year phased entrepreneurs were gains of over €50 per pig. Still good €20 per pig came out even in the average of throughout the year. Mind you company profits, i.e. profits above full cost recovery. The top prizes went out in the barbecue season to over €2 per kg.

The production losses because of PEDv plague, a deadly diarrhoea disease in piglets caused. Despite countermeasures by 5 to 7 kg higher slaughter weights offer was not sufficient in particular during the BBQ season. Due to previous droughts in the pasture breeding areas has been tightened the supply situation through a prolonged deficit in the beef and veal sector .

High prices and profits lure out the investment willingness. The pig count as of Dec. 1, 2014 delivered one to 4.5% higher stock, which especially in the sows felt himself. However, it remains unclear whether he not could recur PEDv Seuchenzeug in the cold season Feb. / March 2015. There are but signs of increased new outbreaks of the disease, but it is believed better than in the previous year to be prepared. In the current phase, only half the cases when compared with the previous year has been registered.

Greater concern makes the observation that the largely maintain increased slaughter weights have been. So should be the plague in temperate orbits, then higher quantities in connection with persistently high slaughter weights will contribute to a disproportionate increase in the volume of pork. Estimates amount to at least 5% to 6%.

The domestic consumption of pork in the United States is still increased in the previous year, but across seen over the years have remained relatively the same. Is a consumption whether that's enough due to the very favorable employment situation in the United States quite conceivable, but?

What is yet more bad news. The strong dollar exchange rate deteriorated the competitive strength of U.S. pork exports compared to the competitors. According to recent estimates of the USDA, pork exports rose about 8% is classified low. The result wwürd mean that still more pork in the country would have to be accommodated. Not going to happen without massive price pressure.

To this future market situation is US stock markets already anticipated. Depending on the conversion from dollars to euros, prices around €1.20 per kg for the coming months are currently traded. Still, it is uncertain how the PEDv disease will develop in the remaining months. A different distribution leads to further price movements up or down.

The year could possibly be by 2015 to a less good years be in the pig sector. In this context, comparisons with previous years with a similar constellation of market are cited, you hate remembers.

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