Full US meat cold stores price pressure: in the export competition, the EU

US cold storage report by July 31, 2015: more meat supplies

The most recent inventory of meat supplies in the American cold showed a further increase. About 1 million tonnes of supplies were determined only for the main kinds of meat from beef, pork, chicken and turkeys. Compared to the previous month, an increase of about 3% took place. Stocks are about 20% higher in comparison to the previous date. The July stock clearly exceeds the upper line of the span the period from 2010 to 2014.

The chicken takes the largest share with about one-third of the provisions. Pork with more than 25% is ranked in second place. Each about 20% of the stocks accounted for beef and Turkey meat.

The main reasons for the high level are the increased production of pork and poultry, as well as the problem of currency-related export difficulties. In the poultry sector, the bird flu has caused additional problems because potential importing countries concerned before the introduction of the disease have closed their borders. Although chicken by the epidemic were almost barely affected, but in the main laying hens and turkeys the demand goes back to poultry meat without further differentiation.

After the PEDv plague in the years 2013/14 with the pigs , a subsequent tremendous expansion of U.S. pork production has overwhelmed domestic consumption and export opportunities. The build-up of inventories fell disproportionately great in the spring for the needs in the barbecue season. Usually, the stocks for the autumn/winter will be reduced again. The high output level can be this year doubts about, that the decline is sufficiently large.

A continued ongoing U.S. meat production at a high level and the unusually high meat supplies press on prices. U.S. hog prices are traded for the month of September 2015 between 1.30 to 1.40 € kg. For the later dates are more price declines.  Also, the previously high U.S. beef prices by over €5 per kg display weakness tendencies. The strong dollar makes U.S. meat exports uncompetitive. The result is that the cost prices have to give further.

The EU and United States are the two largest exporters of pork with a commercial share of respectively 30% worldwide. A low U.S. pork price levels limited the possibilities of the EU, to deliver much-needed higher pork prices thanks to increased exports in the coming months in the competition.

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