Speculating in pigs - rise with volatile prices?
The current prices on 1.45 to € 1.40 / kg end of September 2014 brings back the hedge on the stock exchanges in the conversation.
At the time of the stable of now weaned pigs was traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange for the Sept. 14 deadline between 1.75 and €1,70 / kg. After an average costing a contribution would have can be secured around €22 per pig.
Under one fixed variable costs fattening including marketing with €155 per pig and achieves a cash proceeds of €135 per pig now 95 kg carcass weight to €1,42 / kg. The cover contribution loss estimated today to about €20 per pig.
The brokerage costs and fees hover around the magnitude of 1.5 ct / kg.
Have you secured yet...!
In the closer look however notes that the stock market participation for the Sept-14 contract in the period of mid/late may there has been 12 contracts between 2 up. Obviously, a hedge appeared very attractive from that perspective. A contract offer would be employed on a prolonged ordeal. Then cash prices moving to €1.68 / kg and have been considering the unfavourable barbecue weather in may as low. The seasonal price over previous years signaled rising fall courses, which have exceeded limits of €1.90 / kg in the past few years. The hope for an early easing of the import lock was supported by a variety of negotiations.
The continuation and extension of the Russian import lock on beef and poultry meat from August 2014 would have to revive the hedging activities . The price crash after the Russian import ban due to ASP in Feb. 2014 to 1.45 €/ kg over 1 million number of battle and the usual course of seasonally rising amounts of battle to the fall of the year on the same order of magnitude had been sufficient signals.
Beg. mid Aug. 2014 was the Sept. 14 date with €1.67 / kg. The now missing €20 for each pig would have been safe. However, also in this case, involving exchange for the month of Sep-14 was between 0 and 6 contracts. Subsequent appointments were not occupied.
A look into the future of critical Jan./Feb.-15-Termine of the subsequent Christmas business with Russian import lock provides a number of contracts from scratch. The courses between 1.45 and 1.48 are used. What response can be expected in the case of an offer?
Exchange protection delivers benefits, situation-specific use but only if enough people go.
