Short-term reinsurance and preview on the U.S. pork market.
The U.S. pork market has undergone ups and downs in the past few years in a very short time. PEDv epidemic in the years 2013/14 with high losses of pig, pork had become scarce. Producer prices up to the € 2 per kg brandrose despite a decline in exports. There have been corporate profits of $50 per pig achieved.
This price increase resulted in a strong expansion in the aftermath of the generation. Producer prices promptly fell in the year 2015, €1.40 per kg on average. Seasonally, always the summer barbecue time (barbecue) stand out during the autumn-winter period is characterised by weak prices.
For the past to year 2016, the USDA estimates an further increase in the U.S. pork production to 11.3 million tonnes, an increase of close to 2% over the previous year in its latest issue. During the summer months the battle weights are usually less, yet are the numbers still above last year's level. The highest amounts of battle are predicted with 3 million tonnes for the 4th quarter of 2016.
The USDA is optimistic in assuming that the surplus generation despite a strong dollar, export-unfriendly, even in the domestic market can be coped with. Relatively inexpensive, it is compared to the expensive become beef pork . The domestic consumption increases significantly with a high employment rate.
The price development of 2016 following the season figure. It is estimated the producer prices still at a level of €1.25 / kg in the 1st quarter . The forward rate on the stock exchanges are for the Feb-16-date over €1.30 / kg. For the Sommerhalbjahr the USDA estimates average prices at the producer level to the brand of €1.40 / kg. The listings are located around the base of €0.15 / kg in. Peak values of 1.60 to be achieved in the short term in the June/July 2016.
In the 4th quarter of 2016 , expect a considerable increase in the pork amounts of + 3.2% compared to the same period last year on the basis of the evaluation of quarterly livestock census results. Average prices will then fall back to €1,10 / kg.
The conversions of the future prices were on the basis of an exchange rate of $1.10 made €1 each.
