23.
02.16
11:00

Hog price forecasts for the EU and United States

Projections to the pig price 1 half of 2016

On the basis of livestock census data in 21 EU Member States up to and including Dec. 2015, pig prices working group at the European Commission developed a preview of the accumulating amounts of battle. The possible pig prices are derived from it in connection with a preliminary estimate of consumption and export development. The pork price development in the EU and the forward prices for lean hogs in the United States serve as guidance.

For the average of the past year 2015 the EU pig prices of nearly €1.45 class E (kg SG identified. The courses were a little strong season in early 2015 between 1.30 and €1.40 / kg, moving subsequently despite barbecue to the brand of €1.45 / kg.  A distinctive Grill price high like in the United States occurred in the EU. Background is missing third-country exports due to the lock of Russia, which has had far less of an impact in the United States.

In the course of the 1st quarter year 2016 , the Working Group at the European Commission expects prices of class E in the order of less than € 1.40 / kg. Given the current price situation, it should be difficult to achieve this ambitious goal.

In the 2nd quarter to the brand of €1.45 / kg are exceeded. However, there is still the question of outsourcing the PLH meat amounts on the order of 90,000 tonnes in the space. Experience has shown that these quantities in the usual seasonal upswing put prices under pressure. A significant influence is also depends on the development of weather, which significantly affect the activities of the grill.

The futures prices on the Chicago Exchange assume at the beginning of the year of pig prices €1,15 / kg. The current US prices in Feb 2016 have already developed to €1.30 / kg upwards. For the 2nd quarter with onset of the barbecue season, the forward rates provide more than €1.55 / kg.

The Barbecue season in the United States is good always for increases in demand, but it will need to turn out, whether the increasing U.S. pork offer still by the transition of consumption can benefit from the very expensive beef to pork. Furthermore the question arises after the U.S. export in the face of the strong dollar.

The current prices for pork in major exporting countries are consistently at a low level. This is partly due to the seasonal effect because has but also economic reasons. High levels of supply are faced with weakening foreign demand. The Russia import has been removed as well. The rising China imports contain although large tonnage, but with limited value. The generally weaker current global economy offers little opportunity for larger amounts of demand for pork.

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