23.
02.15
16:35

Hog price forecasts for the EU and United States - damped expectations for 2015

Hog price forecasts EU and United States in relation to each other

In the most recent post to the pork market, the EU pigmeat market working group publish a forecast for the remainder of the pig prices in 2015. For the EU, the data comes from its own sources. The United States were determined the dates of courses at the CME.

According to the assessments of the EU market experts should the average EU pig prices rise class E in the first half at the order of €1.50 per kg and remain there. No statements were made for the second half of the year 2015.

Background for the forecast is the notion that the EU pork production in the first half of the year is on the basis of the livestock census results to estimate largely unchanged.

The Euro rate development, which is responsible for the necessary export business much delivers uncertainties.

Later in the year was the level to around 10 ct / kg and exceeded the 1,70er brand in the summer months.  This year's assessment suggests the idea, that international prices in the United States and Brazil admit no other game rooms upwards as that was the case last year with top rates about €2 / kg.

The rates for the time being next on the level of €1.20 per kgremain for the United States. The present moderate course of PEDv disease (fatal pig disease) in the United States combined with strong inventory increase the sows and unchanged high slaughter weight presses the U.S. pork prices in the rest of the year below the multi-annual average level. The previous year prices are likely to go up as a century event in history.

For the Barbecue season in the summer of 2015 , it is but quite optimistic with prices, just approaching the €1.60 / kg brand in the United States . Autumn 2015 he forecast then but still 1.30 - only values.

But there is in the United States great uncertainty about the actual course of disease events. The intensified preventive measures for disease control seem to have taken very well.

For the US market it will be very important, that the slaughter weights back to the old values return, because alone the number of piglets and therefore the future battle figures are to quote 4-5% higher.  

The EU and the United States hold on the world market two-thirds of the trade share and are direct competitors. The EU must still cope with the problem of the Russian import ban and is therefore dependent on alternative export options in competition with the US providers. You will keep each other in check.

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