Pork prices in the 2nd half of 2016?-economic, seasonality, export, In the 1st half of the year 2016 the pig prices have an unusual Development of low 1.28 EUR / kg to €1,66 / kg. The development under the pressure of a rising generation at the same time missing export had grown after Russia. The prospects were so Dim that you chose to start private storage aid actions. Temporarily up to 90,000 t taken meat from the market. Opponents of the action of predicted a continued price pressure when paging in the barbecue season. But it was different. You overlaid the PLH effect booming exports to China and other Southeast Asian countries in the spring / early summer months. The battle figures were still high in the first quarter, but season-typically gave to the summer months. Although the barbecue effect hardly any noteworthy increases in consumption domestically this year, under the influence of rising third-country exports and declining numbers of battle on prices by weeks €1,66 / kg. Usually rise in the autumn months the battle figures again and the usual above-average consumption during the summer months wears off. A seasonal drop in prices to average 25 ct / kg until January of the next year into is associated. However, in each year, there are differences. For the current year are 3 characteristics to highlight. The aftermath of bad pork and pig prices in 2015 have led to a reduction of EU sows stocks to an extent, with increases of piglet performance can be completely absorbed. Follow the numbers of livestock census results provided carefully, should remain the EU battle figures in the 4th quarter of 2016 to 1.66 million units behind the previous year. Per average week 3rd. 132.500 would be the slaughter less. The battle figures in the 4th quarter 2016 should rd. 3.330.000 piece per quarter or 267, 000 per week lower than the previous 3rd quarter 2016. should actually be the numbers is not a usual production increase can be expected. Under a continuation of the high export volumes also for the 2nd half of 2016 with 100,000 tons per month over the last year be derive from additional 250,000 slaughter each week. Calculated a difference of 380,000 slaughter based on approximately 5.48 millionresults. Slaughter each week in the EU for the same period last year. 7% difference are rd. - to the previous year! But: pork prices in the United States have declined since August 2016 by approximately €2.55 / kg on equivalent current €1.20 / kg and shall be up to Dec. to €1,10 / kg. In connection with the rates of the EU and away to the United States will offset the export competition. In the end is to be expected that pork prices in the 2nd half of the year 2016 but can't keep the current level, but a price crash as in the previous year is not from today's perspective to justify.
