Pork prices in the cellar: is it even deeper, or is everything so bad?
The recent price cuts by approximately 10 ct / kg mid Nov.-15 let fear, that in the critical sales period for the upcoming new year more substantial price cuts are imminent.
The usual seasonal increase in the battle figures in the 3rd and 4th quarter of the year to over 1 million pieces seem to overwhelm the outlets in the year 2015. Although the exports towards Russia are missing, but this export failures to a considerable extent are now balanced, even if not complete.
The Sales situation this year is compounded by the unusually weak domestic demand . May the public discussion about meat has made a contribution to the consumption restraint.
The Commission has created in 2016 in its latest market report a forecast of expected price developments in the last quarter of 2015 and for the first two quarterly. According to the estimates of the market experts at EU level, which should EU average prices in the 4th quarter 2015 to 1.42 EUR / kg of commercial grade E fall back. For the 1st quarter of 2016 is expected with low average values to €1.39 / kg. Courses around €1.45 per kg of commercial grade E is expected for the 2nd quarter of the year 2016.
For Germany it is estimated a price development of just under €1.41 / kg in the 4th quarter 2015 and an increase to 1.45 to 1€50 kg in both first quarter years 2016.
Is 2016 reached the nadir in the 1st quarter with €1.32 / kg in Spain . Pork prices in the surplus country Denmark should fall even deeper. It is estimated a rate of €1.27 / kgin the 1st quarter. Poland expects a development Quartal16 of 1.36 about 1.34 to finally €1.36 per kg in the 2.
The forecasts should so happen, Germany is still best compared to other EU Member States.
Open, the question remains of the upcoming current PLH actions the effectiveness. Remains open even as prices will make the individual weeks.
