Increased US pork production, with consequences for the EU

Above-average expansion of U.S. pork production in 2015

The pork production by 2015 in the United States to about 4.6% increase. These are the first confirmed estimates of the USDA. Total generated just 11 million tons, about half of what is produced in the EU 28.

The extremely high pig prices were the major driving factors for the expansion and cause profits of previous years 2014th was the PEDv plague, a deadly diarrhoea disease in piglets with loss rates by 15%. The loss of production could be only partly offset by higher slaughter weights. Exacerbated the US supply deficit in the beef and veal sector affected.

Whether and to what extent in the current cold season again faces a disease train , remains still uncertain. A slightly again increasing number of affected farms in the Jan 2015 suggests this danger. However, considerable larger precautionary measures have been taken than in the previous year.

Higher inventory increases in the U.S. Sow herd give an idea that pigmeat production can compensate for a plague train in 2015 in any case. In addition are observed by the high weight of the battle until recent times.  

As domestic consumption only little changes, the majority of the additional pork production in the export will wander.  The estimated growth rate of about 8.5% will consider the international pork trade significantly affected. The United States are immediately followed by the EU in this area, world's largest exporters. Both regions together earn about two-thirds of the world market.

It is expected that a further political and financial failure of Russian imports caused the competition situation worsen is. The sets also exports the EU under pressure. However, that has EU the benefit that a weak euro, which noticeably increases the ability to compete with the strong dollar.

As the additional Chinese pork imports are regulates factor to look at. According to the present estimates an import increase of + 17% to be necessary during the year 2015 to meet the Chinese requirement. The demand gap in China has been caused mainly by the 9% reduction of the sow housing unprofitable backyard attitudes in the year 2014. A reconstruction comes very slow in response.

To what extent is the influence factors in the international pork trade balance each other or exacerbate, is currently still uncertain. In any case, it is assumed, that the developments in the United States in this country when their effects the pig prices will leave.

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