EU expert group estimates less pig slaughter in the 1st half of the year 2016
In its monthly market report, the Group of experts at the European Commission for the 1st half of 2016 estimates a number of pig slaughter in the EU decreased by 0.2% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Basic principles for the result provided the livestock census results by October 2015 , as well as experience of market experts. Co - the year's values well below the previous year, which in the first had quarter 2015 still increases by + 4,4% and has seen 2015 still increases by 3.3% in the 2nd quarter are 0.2%. Overall, the year 2015 has brought an increase of 3.3%. Also the prices were accordingly low.
The forecasts are by individual results systematically supported in the Member States. Pig show clear downward trends in the Netherlands, Spain and Germany. In particular, the decline in the number of sows shows with the multiplier of the net number of piglets in the same direction.
The recent experience with the forecasts are enough occasion to understand the numbers due to the limited accuracy of the livestock census results, because as precise predictions rather than trend-setting guidance.
The market situation is already something critical to assess due to the higher PLH storage . However, so far rising exports towards China/Hong Kong in the order of 1.25 million t. provide positive impulses for a discharge of the internal market. And some other countries in South-East Asia show considerable growth rates, albeit at a lower level.
Last but not least is the pig price developments on the U.S. futures exchanges to observe. Converted pig prices traded there for the summer 2016 at the level of €1.60 / kg. The United States are the biggest competitor to export to the EU. In the competition among price Parallels may arise quite.
