Long-term export Outlook for pork with obstacles

USDA: prospects for pork imports - short-term setback, subdued in the medium term growth

Mid 1990s until 2013 be have global pork imports to 2.5 times increase. The East Asian countries of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan with an increase of fas 2.5 million tonnes had substantial share of it. In the same period of time, Russia increased its imports by nearly 1 million tons with a focus on EU exports. The slightly increasing deliveries to pork in the direction of Mexico come mainly to the United States. The United States have pushed back their part clearly Canadian imports. In recent times, China draws attention with rising imports.

With the years 2013/14 begins a new era of pork imports. The Russian lock sustainably expresses the volume of imports on an order of magnitude of 300,000 tonnes with a decreasing tendency. It is assumed that the old delivery numbers be regained even the opening of a border. Political and financial reasons contribute significantly as well as the self-sufficiency desire controlled for years. Heavily affected area is the EU, which must look for alternative ways of export.

The imports from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have reached a certain saturation limit already some time. Future growth in these areas will be only very modestly. A similar statement can be for Hong Kong meet, however at levels five times smaller.

In the future will China significantly more pork need to introduce as the previously reached 1 million tons. The estimate for the coming years assumes a doubling. The reasons are in the Chinese population and income growth on the demand side and the limited opportunities in China to rebuild the domestic production in sufficient mass of the backyard stance on industrial production of pork with a closed cold chain. Disease, health - and environmental problems are more obstacles on the way to the sufficient own supply. A need for further import grain comes to the 85% protein feed imports both for human consumption such as for feeding purposes.  

Especially the United States due to the transport-cost advantage will benefit from the rising imports from Mexico . Shipments from Brazil complete the Mexican requirements.

For the pork export-oriented, economy of the EU , a sales problem on the laborious search arises in the medium term for alternative export opportunities in the few parts of the world with pork consumption. The Chinese option provides only limited on the basis of the acceptance of predominantly less valuable parts of the pig. The competition in the global pork trade requires high effort. At present - but not indefinitely - the weak euro exchange rate helps to tap new sources of sales for the EU.

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