US meat stocks: considerably less beef and pork - speculation on rising prices
The monthly reports to the meat inventory in the American cold show in the average of the year 2014 a stock lower by 10 to 15% compared to a 5-year 2009-2013. The comparison to the year 2013 is more dramatic.
Inventories are usually increased during the summer months. This seasonal effect remains 2014 as well as out. The missing quantities of pork as a result of PEDv epidemic in the United States were the main cause. But also the scarce beef contributed to this reduction in inventory. The stocks of poultry meat fell less sharply down, but contribute to improving the supply situation in recent years.
To expect for the winter period is 2014/15 with an approach to the perennial average inventory development . The reason lies in the continuing US battle weights.
As close to look at supply level contributes that the meat prices at a high level to remain for pork are foreseen prices between 1.50 and €1.60 / kg. The courses are beef equivalent between 5.50 and €6 per kg.
In the winter period on pork be used again after the Christmas days with increased consumption of Turkey meat . Again, this could mean price buoyancy for the pigmeat sector. The big unknown remains the PEDv epidemic this winter. Usually it comes due to lesser effect efficiency when the countermeasures to a greater accumulation during the cold season. Even if the effects of hatchling losses come to fruition only in 6 months, prices will rise at already in advance due to the accumulation of the stock again.
A repeat of PEDv wave as in the previous year met the US meat industry with greater force than in the previous years, because the starting position of meat stocks is considerably lower. Thus a certain degree of compensating initial stocks dropped.
The forward rates already higher in the spring are traded on the stock exchanges. A significant risk premium is priced. Should the feared animal in less large scale leak, meat prices will give too much.
The hope that the disease process is better managed than in the previous year, with increasing experience and greater attention could contribute to the reduction of the damage. Then the prices are not high enough fail as was the case last year with courses of €2 per kg.
