Medium-term Preview on the U.S. pork market

U.S. pork market for the time being under cyclic pressure on prices - later more favourable prospects

FAPRI U.S. agricultural research community gave a forecast for the U.S. pork market in its recent publication to the medium-term Outlook on the U.S. agricultural markets by the year 2025.

A significant increase in the U.S. pork supply is estimated on the basis of the sows stock developments, updating the productivity and the expected development of demand for the years 2016 to 2018 .  Demand subdued fails something that is assumed by increasing export volumes.

The prices should be in the years 2016 to 2018 at a below-average level of €1.30 / kg, if one accepts the current exchange rates. 

FAPRI expects a cyclical due to stagnating production development at the same time slightly declining demand in the period of 2019 to 2022 . Rising export volumes in the order of 2.65 million tonnes per year to ensure an appropriate balance between domestic demand and supply in this time, FAPRI expects significantly rising U.S. prices, which reach up to the mark of €1.50 / kg on average.

For the rest of the future period until 2015 it is again by cyclical increases in supply. Although domestic demand and exports are set to further, but the prices go back to Valley drive in the direction of average €1.40 / kg.

Future growth rates are somewhat more moderate in comparison to the previous ten-year period from 2005 to 2015 . However, in the past, there were a number of turbulence with strong price distortions. In particular the epidemic PEDv caused considerable if booms and busts in a range from 1.10 to just under €2 / kg.

The FAPRI forecast makes average framework conditions for the production and development of demand. Unpredictable political and economic differences are can disturb the developments while but may have limited affect their fundamental orientation.

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