Mid-term review of Russia's lock on pork

Russian failures can substitute exports are not fully compensated

The Russian ban on imports of pork from the EU has led to major changes in the third country of export . The total exports of the European Union by 7.2% or 165,000 t is decreased in the period from Jan. to Sept 2014. The pressure on prices, which was attenuated in the summer by seasonally low numbers of battle was correspondingly high, exports to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine have fallen in the first 9 months 2014 577.500 t. Of which Russia denies most of 90%.

The efforts to substitute exports have success ? Export gains have offset a part of the Russian failure after Japan amounting to about 85,000 t, after South Korea and the Philippines with each approximately 65,000. Additional exports towards China/Hong Kong with about 16,000 t, United States with increased 19,000 t and Australia with 11,000 t have contributed to an increase of total 262.500 t.

In total the other many small pork importer of Montenegro to Angola a contribution of additional 150,000 t together came after all so the export gains may have been successful, they range from notto replace the Russian export failure fully. This is in addition to take into account the export gains are not free, but cost money.  

The Individual EU countries are affected differently. With 45% or - 100,000 tons, Poland was the country with the largest decline. Co - Germany has to bear a substantial part of the burden of 66,000 t and 11%, respectively. But also Denmark, France and Belgium have with each rd.  -10,000 tons or - 5 to-15% paid tribute. However, Spain has managed to increase its exports to 20% or 40,000 t.

The seasonally higher volumes of pork in the 4th quarter 2014 can be accommodated easily in increasing exports. Although still small margins to increase exports in the above mentioned areas are, but the growth rates are insufficient, to market the additional amount of meat to rising prices.

For the time being, the price pressure will remain basically. A tightening of the heel problem is to expect at persistently high Lebendangeboten in the weak demand weeks around Christmas and in the month January. For the first half of the year 2015 no fundamentally different market able to detect is low productivity. The usual spring build-up of inventories offers hope for the BBQ season.

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