Ratio of Ferkel-to pig prices subject to temporal variations
Although pig - and pork prices are linked, but nevertheless, each market has also its own dynamics. The differences come in the long-term trend in the medium-term cycle and the short-term seasonal fluctuations to the expression.
In the past time, 2 phases are indistinguishable. From 2007 to 2011 the ratio of Ferkel-to pork prices was characterised by rising German pig imports from Denmark and the Netherlands with annual increases of 1 million pigs, as well as slightly rising domestic production the German sow inventory was introduced while off-topped, but at the same time the more fruitful Danzucht. The domestic pig offer increased even slightly.
Increased imports of piglets and fertility due to increasing domestic traffic led to tend to be declining pig prices in relation to the pig prices.
Before the sow stalls was prioritised the construction of pole barns in Germany. Which benefited from offering low-priced pig even at sharply higher feed costs.
At the beginning of the year up to the second half of 2014 entered a period of relatively high pig and pork prices. The average pork price level is to attract approximately €1.65 per kg. In contrast was the average from 2007 to 2011 at about €1.45 per kg. Rising pork exports were background for the increase in prices after Russia at the same time stagnating EU production.
The low production increase was a result of not more so greatly increasing numbers of battle, in turn due to the limited number of piglets whose cause is. Piglet supply had become so close, because imports from DK and NL in a phase of stagnation had run into and the productivity effect of Danzucht has reached a period of consolidation.
Measured on the overhang of the number of mast sites compared to the pig offer showed a tighter supply situation with juveniles compared with previous years. This shows explicitly in high pig prices and at the same time less pronounced seasonal variations. A strong deviation is for the late summer 2014 fallen pig prices to determine a period of time, where typically the year low of in pig prices should have been effective.
With the turn of the year 2014/15 one seems to initiate new era. The continuing in the foreseeable loss of exports to Russia and their replacement in other import markets has led to a sharp decline in the pig price level on earlier of €1.40 per kg times. The prices can be calculated with just under 20%. Piglets prices are in the meantime on less than €40 per piece or fallen by around 30% from €55 per 25 kg piglets.
In recent weeks and months the piglet prices despite a have can refer usual spring high only to depressed pork prices. However, the piglet prices remain relatively tough, as long as the seasonal not to ample availability of pig fatteners side will demand.
The current price slump among the pigs end of April 2015 will initially lead to the customization of pig prices . The extent depends on the ratio of demand to offer at the pig market.
According to the forecast, the weaned pigs in August 2015 with nearly €1.60 / kg will be evaluated after 4 months of mast. At the usual market price risk and rational thinking up stable readiness will wear off little.
