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07.14
15:05

OECD: Long-term prospects in the global pork market

OECD-10 year forecast 2014 to 2023: future pig prices to the $2 per kg

In the Past 10 years the global pork production grew on average 2.2%. The OECD estimates only a 1.1 percent increase in its most recent study from 2014 to 2023. In developing countries, increase in production should fall about 4 times as big as in developed countries. The production volumes of both regions compensate more.

China, which more than half of the production increase at world level marched above all. With complete distance, big production gains in Viet Nam are to expect the United States and Russia. Increases in the EU, however, modest. Pork with the cheap poultry meat and its positive image in regard to fat poverty competes in the competition with other sources of meat. Poultry meat will overtake according to OECD estimates in the coming 10 years the market share of pork.

Pigmeat production is substantially affected current and foreseeable 3 critical factors. Which African swine fever is in Northern Europe continue on the rise and could lead to a devastating slump in production in regions of intensive.  

Been distributed in North America is the PEDv a previously unimagined extent across the country and reflects the American production with significant consequences for world trade for years.

For all locations of pig production, increasing consumer protection (including antibiotics usage limitation), animal rearing fairer kind of and higher environmental protection measures are not only required n but also prescribed.

The OECD estimates that the additional costs in the above fields will more than offset the expected feed costs decline over the last few years.

On the demand side, ideologically distinct consumption habits, the level of consumption, population growth and the income increases determine future developments. The consumption of pork is taboo in certain regions of the world, dominant in other areas. Here too, China is paramount. In addition to the EU, North America, Russia, Japan and some other Southeast Asian countries, pork consumption in the Oriental countries, Africa and Central America is little room for expansion. You can find significant increases only in emerging markets. The developed countries have largely reached its saturation limit or exceeded.

The world trade in pork will no longer reach the growth rates of previous years. A sharp decline in imports is expected for the Eastern European countries including Russia. Import increases are expected in particular to China and some Southeast Asian countries.

Pork exports in the throttled increase pace are seen mainly for North America (United States, Canada), and in highly attenuated for the EU. A strong euro and the increasing requirements in animal husbandry weaken the EU's competitive position in the export.

The nominal prices of pork showed average in the past up to the year 2010/11A to the 1.45 kg with considerable fluctuation. In the recent past, a price level has to $1.90 eingependelt per kg. The OECD estimates a first slightly declining pork prices for the next few years until 2018. In the following years by 2023 assumes a price level of approximately $2 per kg.

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