PEDv damage her high point drive - U.S. pork prices considerably higher than €2 / kg

PEDv-related battle failures in the United States drive on the pig prices

The Next two months will lead to an inglorious climax of in pig prices due to the failure of animals for slaughter for the pig industry in the United States. Has the fatal diarrhea disease in piglets after the acquisition statistics in Jan and Feb-2014, the highest number of cases reported. Then dead piglets as slaughter pigs in the July or August 2014 to a particularly large extent would have to be missing during a 6-month delay.

However remains the extent of the damage is unclear, because only the companies, but not collected the dead pig numbers themselves. Therefore there are only projections. The breadth of the estimation results ranging from 7% to 15%. Measures should contribute to a reduction in the losses to the countermeasures. This includes in particular the increase in the slaughter weights rd. 5 k per battle pork for several months. End of May 14, the higher Mastendgewichte have sufficient to compensate for the reduced numbers, staged more than that.

At the latest at the beginning of the month of June this compensation effect does not suffice. Battle figures are 2.5 per cent, the slaughter weights only to 0%. The temporal origin of these results is located in the PED-figures of Nov. 2013, which accounts for only one-third of a week almost 100 cases of newly infected farms, which was determined in the Jan and Feb 2014. It is therefore to be expected that the losses of the previous July and August 2014 will triple in the next two months.

It is questionable whether a further increase in the slaughter weights. Usually, the Mastendgewichte drop up to 90 kg in the warmer season. A hold of the weight numbers increased so far to 5 kg would be a success.

On the demand side is the barbecue season with a disproportionate demand for barbecue products. In anticipation of this bottleneck the stock activity gathered momentum, with the consequence of early price increases already in the spring months. However, the quarterly inventory reports display no oversized stocking, so that must be expected in the coming months an additional crunch. The U.S. beef supply as an alternative is also scarce and expensive. Only the growing poultry sector could provide some relief.

After the initial shock had the US prices retreated again under the brand name of €2 per kg, now significantly exceed the € 2.05 / kg mark. The rates for the month of August indicate further gains. The autumn months is assumed by a significant decline in the U.S. hog prices. Behind it is the expectation that the declining PED cases can contribute again to a normal volume of battle, however, the current level is still above the average. Also has reinforced efforts at high financial cost - - support the hopes to get the disease events in the handle.

As the world's largest pork exporter, the conditions in the United States will have indirectly on the world market. The EU as the second largest pork exporting country could benefit on a low scale and catch the failure of export towards Russia and to a lesser extent.

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