Pork is over after China - boom - prices - unsettled new US policy

The boom phase of the China export pork meat is over--prices have fallen China's pork imports is have more than doubledin the year 2016. Chinese imports reached the mark by about 1 million tonnes in 2015. In the current year projections provide a magnitude to the 2.5 million t. The stock declines took place for profitability reasons caused this import boom in previous years. Sow housing alone was off increased in the years 2014 and 2015 by 20%. Spite of all Chinese efforts through import increases productivity to achieve a balance, were necessary.  Pork consumption in China still remained under the results of previous years. Chinese pork imports came from all major exporting countries.  The largest share came from the EU. But also the North American States of United States and Canada achieved export increases in the direction of China. Brazil as the 4th largest production area was also part of the game. Even small countries such as Chile did. In the transition to the 2nd half of the year 2016 the deliveries had peaked after China. Most got the new development to feel the EU and the United States. The reasons for the declining import volumes are multiple.

1. Chinese pork prices had a maximum mark of €3.80 / kg in the summer 2016 erreict and since then are still/around €3 / kg please. The falling prices signal a declining demand in comparison to the offer from home and abroad. Falling Chinese prices reduce the attractiveness of the import business.
2. Pork prices in the EU and the United States reached maximum values between 1.60 and €1.70 per kg during the summer months. The span between import prices and Chinese became increasingly close, so that the import business was economically closer.
3. The U.S. hog prices experienced a veritable fall under the 1 €/ kg mark as a result of sustained high productivity to the autumn 2016. However, the U.S. export opportunities through the strong dollar and reserved compared to growth promoters were restricted in limited opportunities in their own country. The strong U.S. price drop not led yet to an increase in exports to China, but eased somewhat.
4. EU pork prices remain high until early October weakened the competitive position when the third country business. The monthly exports to China were withdrawn without any other exporting countries had benefited substantially.

As a result, it should be noted that the boom-like China imports have reached a saturation in the 2nd half of the year and exceeded. The declining exports of EU are not due to more favourable purchase prices in the United States, but in 1. Line on a higher market saturation in China itself.  Future imports of China will be at a reduced level. The competitive position of other suppliers defused the price increases occurred in the EU at a lower level. Brazilian and Canadian prices with prices around €1.40 / kg have only a small competitive advantage.  US prices for the time being remain on their shopping-low level to the 1 €/ kg mark. To what extent this is a reversal of the flow of goods, is doubtful given the new political development as a result of the outcome of the US presidential election .