Schweinefleisch market 2015: high pressure from United States away broken Russia import, EU from seeking export replacement, verhaltenene Chinese demand
Several outstanding factors in the global pork market is emerging for the year 2015.
Which is more sustained loss of Russian pork imports to make out front. Imports about 1 million tons with a clear focus from Europe for the year 2015 expects you with 0.2 million tonneswere still in the year 2012. An opening of Russia's borders is already unlikely for political reasons due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In addition comes the lack purchasing power due to the very weak ruble exchange rate and lower income as a result of price decline of in energy exports. You will want to won't undermined the State-subsidized Autoproduction with imports.
The development in the United States is in second place. After a century year 2014 with entrepreneurs win the retaliation comes now. The meat supplies have + 8% compared to the 5-year average piled on top. The sows stocks grew by 4.6%. The PEDv plague brought only one-half to one-third of last year's loss in the cold months from Jan to March 2015. The weights of battle of are still with 5 to 6 kg above the averages of previous years. The strong dollar made exporting difficult. Exports fell by half to China.
Hopes are set on a rising U.S. domestic consumption , however, consumption increases by over 8% are not very realistic. Also, doubts expressed whether the production increases 6% have been estimated not yet too low. U.S. hog prices are heavily under pressure. Prices are currently between 1.20 and €1.50 / kg in the barbecue season.
China's leading pork production by 2015 just constant. Grounds consisting in lack profitability in the year 2014 as a result of unfavourable pig feed prices. It should be slaughtered more than 12% of the sows . Pig diseases are responsible also for the stopped process of development in China. On the demand side expects a slower growth of just 0.5% compared to multi-year averages around 2%.
The expectations of the Chinese imports are withdrawn by original 1 million tonnes to 0.8 million tonnes. You count Hong Kong with 0.36 million tonnes, about 1.16 million t in the Middle Kingdom will be delivered. However, China imported pork in a low value of 1.30 to €1.50 per kg.
The EU will be 2015 before the United States when exporting to the world's best . Approximately 2.4 million tons are to be delivered to third countries. Given the absence of Russia exports must buy the European exporters in other markets and displacing the existing competition. This is only about the price war. The United States with their low price offers are most powerful opponents. The EU exports by the weak euro exchange rate for support.
Overall, the pork price level in 2015 by the market situation will be under pressure. The booms of the prices in the region above the 1.70 €/ kg mark for the time being are not in sight. The upcoming barbecue season helps with in the short term, but the prospects for the autumn 2015 are far from rosy.
