Increasing EU pork exports have driven prices - for how long? In the year 2016 more than 4 million tonnes pork carcass weight based on calculated high just exported to third countries. Compared to the previous years is the increase in more than a third. This development is not smoothly gone. First, it has by the import ban of Russia's a significant shortfall of third country deliveries given. The result was a ruinous price declines, which extended through the year 2015 . Pig prices below €1.30 / kg were still at the beginning of the year 2016. But in the course of the 1st half-year 2016 developed an unusual dynamics of exports towards China and other Southeast Asian countries. Chinese imports doubled compared to the previous year. Japan and the Philippines increased their pork purchases from the EU by 13 to 25%. There is also significant export reductions-15% after South Korea, -28% after South Africa and down 24% in the Ivory Coast. With just under 48% denies China the largest share of EU exports. Japan comes to about 10%. The Philippines and South Korea reach each rd. 5% share. The other countries covered by the 3% share mark. The export boom is mainly worn by China. The the stagnation of the Chinese pig in 2014/15 due to lack of profitability leads out into the Middle Kingdom to a strong supply deficit with pork prices far beyond €3 / kg. At the same time the EU pig prices were still rd 1, €30 / kg, while in the United States the courses circulated among other things due to the dollar exchange rate at €1.45 / kg. For China, which was closer, as to intensify the existing supply relationships with the EU. Led rising export volumes at the same time falling slaughter numbers in the EU in the course of the 2nd and 3rd quarter to unexpectedly high pig prices, even the outsourcing of PLH levels were forgotten in the summer months. The most recent monthly data however show no further increase in EU exports to China. Increasing prices in this country seem to slow down the buying appetite. This is true not only for China. At the same time falling U.S. hog prices can also have raised a signal effect on converted values/less than €1.20 / kg . The weekly identified U.S. exports is still little to feel but by an increase in sales to China. For it is booming but in Brazil, but at a significantly lower level. Given the huge difference in price between the two largest exporting countries to the EU and United States pork sector arises the question, to what extent are future Chinese imports more be focused on the prices. While the EU has the worse cards first unless it has the EU pig prices will give significantly. This quality and hygiene benefits of the EU could including Ractopamine waiver be thrown into the pan. A not to exclude dollar price increase due to increase of interest rates in the United States in the near future could also be brought into play. Of the likelihood of sustained high EU pork prices at the current level is low. In addition, it is assumed that the slaughter numbers will increase again in the 4th quarter. The question remains on what level prices will stabilize.
