After months of unchanged quotations under the constant pressure from house prices, the pig price rises by + 8 ct/kg within a week at the beginning of Aug.22. Has the knot now broken? Will the €2/kg mark become the lower price limit in future? Or are the expectations set too high and not supported enough? How can the current increase in pork prices be explained? On the demand side , there is still a noticeable reluctance due to the high inflation rates and the additional cost of living. But the end of the holiday season has brought many foreign tourists back to the country and the empty refrigerators are being refilled. However, the holiday cost money and the account balance is close to zero or below. However, a significant increase in demand can be expected from the meat processing industry after the end of the company holidays. The courses for the sections have already increased. The decisive factor, however, is the persistently low supply of live animals . Weekly slaughter has continued to fall in recent months and has recently averaged no more than 750,000.Although the summer supply is always lower than the annual average, compared to earlier comparative figures, the level is around 10 to 15% lower than usual. As long as there were no meat sales, there was at least a tense balance. What can be expected for the coming weeks and months ? In the course of the month of August, the end of holidays/holidays will be heralded in other federal states. This could trigger an increase in demand, albeit a slower one. Consumption is once again taking place locally, but as is well known, a certain amount of thrift is called for in the post-holiday season so that the financial accounts can recover. In view of the unfavorable economic and income prospects this year, the propensity to consume could be dampened more than usual. In view of the tight supply situation in China , expectations of increasing Chinese imports are being raised. Although Germany will not benefit directly from ASP, there will be a noticeable relief in third-country business here as well.On the supply side , slaughter volumes usually increase in the second half of the year. In the last two months, however, an opposite development can be observed. With weekly fluctuations, the battle numbers fall. The explanation can be found in the low number of piglets or piglet imports in the previous months. Even if the livestock census results are only reliable to a limited extent, a further decline in pig production can be derived from the stock figures in May 2022. The high level of sow slaughter and the low gilt orders underline this assessment. Inflated expectations will probably not be met, but pure pessimism is not justified either.
