+ 30 ct / kg within 4 weeks and no house prices ?! A few weeks ago we were fighting for +3 ct / kg! What has changed so fundamentally? On the supply side , it can be seen that since the beginning of 2019 the average battle figures have been rising from just over 1 million units month after month. have dropped to just over 900,000 pieces . In the initial phase of this period, this development benefited from the sluggish demand for the holidays, so that no price changes appeared necessary. With resumption of the usual shopping behavior at the food retailing and the processing plants, the supply-demand conditions were a little tighter. For a price increase , however, there was little willingness on the buyer side, because they could not be enforced in the resale . Even the argument of the slaughter hook utilization could not convince.However, the continued decline in battle numbers later led to increasing inventory levels . And at a time when usually the stocking for the barbecue season should start. In recent years, the battle numbers fell so clearly that the current paragraph seemed endangered. The pre-registrations do not signal a fundamental change in the foreseeable development. The barbecue season is getting closer and calls for an increase in inventories , which is not sufficient to serve with the available supply. In the barbecue season, the demand can not be served as a rule from the current slaughtering. Rising prices are inevitable. In a kind of booster function , there has been an increasing demand from the export side from China , which has already led to rising prices in all leading export countries worldwide.Although these are less price-determining cuts , the immense leverage effect of large Chinese import volumes must not be overlooked. And: The prospects for further import increases of the Chinese in the summer and autumn of this year is unavoidable in view of the ASP failures. With a share of 55% in the past, with Germany at the top, the EU was one of the world's leading suppliers to China . In view of the scarce living offers in this country, the Chinese demand will not come to the full extent to the course. The exception, however, is Spain, with its above-average increase in pig herds . The Spanish focus on third country exports drives self-sufficiency to over 170%. Against this background, higher pig prices of 30 ct / kg are accepted without audible opposition from the slaughter side. Cheap price prospects in 2019, but do not forget the ASP.
