EU pork exports to China/Hong Kong - limited growth potential
Missing export opportunities in pork from the EU towards Russia demand alternative distribution channels, because the saturation limit is largely achieved in the internal market. Essentially just the Asian region for pork exports into account comes in the face of the many obstacles in terms of religious ideas and lack of purchasing power in many parts of the world.
The expansion of already existing supply relationships in the largest importer of the world Japan however quickly reaches limits. Japanese imports of pork are with 1.25 million tonnes at the highest level, but stagnate for more than 15 years. Here a cut-throat competition with the United States and Canada held normally, who have a fixed place. Limited opportunities exist for additional European imports after Japan. Denmark holds a significant position for years.Germany has only just started conquered a market share.
The growth markets in South Korea and Philippinesare receptive. For 2014 expected with an increase of 50,000 t pork or + 13% after South Korea and about 18,000 t, + 10.5% in the Philippines. Measured on the need for replacement of failed Russia exports amounting to 700,000 tonnes, sales volumes are relatively modest.
The volume of imports to China currently 800,000 tonnes and Hong Kong is promising with 450,000 t in the average of the last two years.
Tends to be decreased for the months of Jan to Sept 2014, however, is the Chinese pork imports . Background is a strong reduction of the herds in the 1st half of 2014. For profitability reasons, nearly 9 per cent of the sows were slaughtered and not replaced. As a result, a high volume of pork was temporarily. The falling Chinese imports remained for EU exports in manageable framework.
With end of this and early next year , pork from Chinese domestic production is absent. There is the expectation that China could more import around 1 million tonnes of pork or + 20% in 2015. In the face of European low prices combined with a weak euro exchange rate , a good chunk of market share for the EU should pop out.
Hong Kong's imports have in the period from Jan. to Sept 2014 to 70,000 t or + 17% compared to the same period of last year sharply increased. Of the EU has also supplied about 50,000 t or + 24%. For the year 2015 are expected only a modest increase of 10,000 tons or + 3%.
Despite favourable prospects for alternative outlets outside Russia, the additional volumes can replace the export loss only in parts.
